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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
Looking purely at midterm elections (ie when the White House is not at stake), the last 7 (since 1994) have seen the following returns (see table). Equities are the only asset class that really stand out directionally: to the upside. Otherwise there is basically no discernable pattern in dollar and Treasury performance - it depends on the circumstances, macroeconomic and otherwise.
- The near-term move (3M) has tended to be a weaker dollar, while equities and yields have been mixed (notably the last two midterms have seen a fairly sharp drop in yields though mixed USD).
- 6M out, equities are clearly moving higher, with the dollar tending to be a little lower and yields slightly mixed (though note again the last two times the DXY has been stronger in the 6-months post elections).
- A year later, equities are the clear winner. Yields have tended to fall more often than not, while USD performance is, again, very mixed.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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