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MIDTERMS: Fetterman Leading Oz In Crucial Pennsylvania Race

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Lt Gov John Fetterman (D-PA) is outperforming expectations in the Pennsylvania Senate race.

  • With Lt Gov Mandela Barnes (D-WI) and Rep Tim Ryan (D-OH) both trailing in their races, the Pennsylvania Senate race is now considered the most likely chance for Democrats to flip a GOP Senate seat.
  • Fetterman maintained a double digit polling advantage over Trump-endorsed celebrity surgeon Mehmet Oz (R) during much of the summer but the race tipped in favour of Oz during the GOP October surge over concerns surrounding Fetterman's health.
  • Jonathan Tamari of the Philly Enqurely reports that Fetterman, and Democrat gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro, are outperforming President Biden on the President's own turf: "Lackawanna County - 92% of the vote counted: Fetterman has 57% of the vote Shapiro has 61% Biden got 54% This is where SCRANTON is."
  • Implications: If Fetterman wins in PA, the GOP will need to flip two of the tossup Democrat seats, Georgia (currently on a knife-edge and potentially heading to a runout, Nevada, or Arizona which have yet to report early counts).
Chart 1: Pennsylvania Senate Race (Implied Probability % Smarkets)
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Lt Gov John Fetterman (D-PA) is outperforming expectations in the Pennsylvania Senate race.

  • With Lt Gov Mandela Barnes (D-WI) and Rep Tim Ryan (D-OH) both trailing in their races, the Pennsylvania Senate race is now considered the most likely chance for Democrats to flip a GOP Senate seat.
  • Fetterman maintained a double digit polling advantage over Trump-endorsed celebrity surgeon Mehmet Oz (R) during much of the summer but the race tipped in favour of Oz during the GOP October surge over concerns surrounding Fetterman's health.
  • Jonathan Tamari of the Philly Enqurely reports that Fetterman, and Democrat gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro, are outperforming President Biden on the President's own turf: "Lackawanna County - 92% of the vote counted: Fetterman has 57% of the vote Shapiro has 61% Biden got 54% This is where SCRANTON is."
  • Implications: If Fetterman wins in PA, the GOP will need to flip two of the tossup Democrat seats, Georgia (currently on a knife-edge and potentially heading to a runout, Nevada, or Arizona which have yet to report early counts).
Chart 1: Pennsylvania Senate Race (Implied Probability % Smarkets)