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MIDTERMS: Polling Stations In Indiana And Kentucky Closing Shortly

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  • The key race is Indiana's 1st Congressional district, held by freshman Democrat incumbent Rep Frank Mrvan (D-IN).
    • Republican challenger Jennifer-Ruth Green would be the first black female Republican rep, if elected.
  • Mrvan won the working-class district easily in 2020, but Republicans have targeted the district as a flip with Conservative group funneling millions of campaign dollars into TV ads attacking Mrvan.
  • Trends: Watch this race for signs that the GOP continues to make inroads with white working class voters.
    • The GOP will also monitor this race to try to determine dynamics amongst Latino voters. 41% of Hispanic voters without university degrees backed Trump in 2020 and that number looks set to increase.
    • The race will test some of the key themes of the midterm cycle. Democrats have pointed at legislation, like the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, as essential for regenerating the district. Republicans have pointed at the same legislation as exacerbating inflation.
    • Biden has aggressively tried to court the union vote, so a Green win bode badly for Democrats in rust-belt districts and could foreshadow a strong night for Republicans, perhaps even an early sign of a "red wave".
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