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Mild Bull Flattening After Recent Sell-Offs

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have been relatively subdued after yesterday’s further bear steepening, prior to the US coming in and FOMC minutes later at 1400ET/1900GMT.
  • 2Y yields are unch at 0.760%, 5Y unch at 1.357%, 10Y -0.5% at 1.642% and 30Y -1.9bps at 2.046%.
  • TYH2 is in the middle of the morning’s tight range at 129-12 after recovering yesterday from a low of 129-04. Further declines could open 128-30+ (Nov 26 low) and then a key support of 128-22+ (Now 22 low). Relatively low volumes at just above 240k.
  • ADP for Dec (cons 410k after 534k), final Dec Markit PMIs for services/composite with likely a renewed focus on prices paid, and then the aforementioned FOMC minutes.
  • The focus for the minutes will be discussions hinting to the feasibility of the March meeting being live for a rate hike (timing between taper conclusion and liftoff) and balance sheet normalisation timing.
  • NY Fed buy-ops: 7Y-10Y, appr $2.425B (1030ET) and 22.5Y-30Y, appr $1.825B (1120ET).
  • Issuance: $40B 119D-bill auction (1130ET).
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