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Mildly Weaker, Off Lows, Focus on Wednesday's May 1 FOMC Minutes

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  • Treasuries trading modestly weaker after the bell, generally quiet start to the week with no data until Wednesday, dip in rates coincided with rebound in USD. Treasuries broke a narrow overnight range, extended lows early Monday, traded sideways after recovering approximately half the move by midmorning.
  • Decent corporate debt issuance climbed over $15B, rate lock hedging contributed to the early sale. Pick-up in Tsy quarterly futures roll from Jun'24 to Sep'24.
  • Vice Chair for Supervision Barr says in prepared remarks for a keynote address that restrictive policy needs further time to do its work and that the Fed is in a good position to hold rates steady whilst it watches. The economy is strong, growth is solid and unemployment is low.
  • Rate cut projections have receded vs. this morning's levels (*): June 2024 at -5% w/ cumulative rate cut -1.2bp at 5.318%, July'24 at -20% w/ cumulative at -6.3bp (-7.5bp) at 5.267%, Sep'24 cumulative -19.6bp (-20.9bp), Nov'24 cumulative -27.1bp (-29bp), Dec'24 -41.5bp (-43.9bp).
  • Look ahead to Tuesday, similar to Monday: no economic data and a raft of Fed speakers. Focus on the minutes from the May 1 FOMC this Wednesday.
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  • Treasuries trading modestly weaker after the bell, generally quiet start to the week with no data until Wednesday, dip in rates coincided with rebound in USD. Treasuries broke a narrow overnight range, extended lows early Monday, traded sideways after recovering approximately half the move by midmorning.
  • Decent corporate debt issuance climbed over $15B, rate lock hedging contributed to the early sale. Pick-up in Tsy quarterly futures roll from Jun'24 to Sep'24.
  • Vice Chair for Supervision Barr says in prepared remarks for a keynote address that restrictive policy needs further time to do its work and that the Fed is in a good position to hold rates steady whilst it watches. The economy is strong, growth is solid and unemployment is low.
  • Rate cut projections have receded vs. this morning's levels (*): June 2024 at -5% w/ cumulative rate cut -1.2bp at 5.318%, July'24 at -20% w/ cumulative at -6.3bp (-7.5bp) at 5.267%, Sep'24 cumulative -19.6bp (-20.9bp), Nov'24 cumulative -27.1bp (-29bp), Dec'24 -41.5bp (-43.9bp).
  • Look ahead to Tuesday, similar to Monday: no economic data and a raft of Fed speakers. Focus on the minutes from the May 1 FOMC this Wednesday.