Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
With one month to go before the 22 October presidential election, right-wing libertarian Javier Milei retains a lead over incumbent Economy Minister Sergio Massa, although neither men look likely to win the requisite 50%+1 of the vote or 40%+1 and 10% higher than their nearest competitor to win an outright first-round victory. As such, the eventual split of the votes for the most likely third-placed candidate, conservative Together for Change (JxC) candidate Patricia Bullrich, could prove crucial.
- The most likely outcome is that the larger portion of Bullrich voters shift their support to Milei in a second round. Milei's unorthodox policy stances (dollarisation, shutter central bank, close numerous gov't departments) could scare off more middle class professional JxC voters, especially in the context of the UP selecting the centrist Massa over more left wing Kirchnerist candidates.
- However, a more sizeable portion of JxC backers are likely to opt for Milei's plans of 'chainsaw' policies over four more years of Peronist control.
- Supporters of the two lowest-ranking candidates in the contest, far-left FIT-U candidate Myriam Bregman and federal Peronist HNP candidate Juan Schiaretti, are likely to swing towards Massa over Milei. However, together both are polling around 5-8%, not enough to put Massa over the majority threshold.
- Latest data from political betting markets gives Milei a 75.3% implied probability of winning the election, with Massa on 16.5% and Bullrich on 8.2%.
Chart 1. Argentina Presidential Election First Round Opinion Polling, % and 2-Poll Moving Average
Source: CELAG, Opinia Argentina, Federico Gonzalez y Asociados, Analogias, Consultora Tendencias, Opinion Lab, CEOP, OPSA, DC Consultores, CB Consultora, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.