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Minimal Let Up For Mortgages

US DATA
  • MBA 30Y mortgage rates saw the first decline in three weeks, -16bps to 6.42% in the week to Jan 6. It remains off the most recent low 6.34% from mid-Dec but down from highs of >7% in late-Oct to mid-Nov following a similar rolling over in Treasury yields.
  • The recent decline helped lift refis 5% on the week but continued weakness in purchase mortgages (-1%) meant just a 1% increase in composite applications around the turn of the year.
  • The latest decline pushed purchase applications to new lows for the cycle, just off 2015 lows and then levels not seen since the late 1990s.

MBA 30Y mortgage rate (white), 10Y Tsy yield (pink), spread (red) and purchase applications level (green)Source: Bloomberg

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