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Minimum Wage Discussions, BanRep Next Week

COLOMBIA
  • Local markets open after the holiday Thursday. Today, minimum wage discussions continue, with unions possibly presenting their proposals for a wage increase for 2023. Additionally, President Petro meets with the US Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.
  • The most recent release of November inflation ticked higher to 12.53% Y/y with the core reading also rising to 9.48%. This has increased the likelihood of BanRep extending its hiking cycle next week. As of writing, the majority of analysts are forecasting another 100bp increase of the overnight rate to 12.00%, with just one calling for a smaller increase of 50bps.
  • On Wednesday, Finance Minister Jose Antonio Ocampo said that Colombia will cut its 2023 fiscal deficit to 4.3% of GDP, including fuel subsidies, from an estimated 7% in 2022. The deficit is then expected to fall to 1.7% of GDP in 2024.

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