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Minority Leader McConnell Concedes Democrats Favoured To Retain The Senate

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Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has told reporters in Kentucky that he thinks, "there's probably a greater likelihood the House flips [to the Republican party] than the Senate. Senate races are just different, they're statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome."

  • The Minority Leader's remarks appear a critique of Republican Senate candidates endorsed by former President Donald Trump who have underperformed on the campaign trail in key Senate races.
  • Republicans were strong favourites to flip the Georgia Senate seat of Raphael Warnock (D-GA) but the campaign of Trump-backed Hershel Walker has been criticised for lacking professionality.
  • Likewise in Pennsyvania, Lt Gov John Fetterman has built up a double-digit lead over Trump-endorsed Mehmet Oz despite being away from the campaign trail since May after suffering a stroke.
  • The political environment may also be changing in the House of Representatives. A generic ballot from Politico/Morning Consult has shown Democrats with a 4 percentage point lead.

Figure 1: Generic Congressional Ballot (Politico/Morning Consult)

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