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Minutes: Key comments from Floden

RIKSBANK
  • "Despite the slightly stronger economic developments and somewhat higher long-term inflation expectations, my assessment is that the need for expansionary monetary policy is unchanged. Inflationary pressures are weak and average inflation will probably be below target in the coming years despite the expansionary monetary policy. The picture for resource utilisation is a little more complicated as there is a big difference among sectors, but unemployment is expected to remain high for the entire forecast period. Stronger economic developments and higher inflation expectations will therefore contribute to better target attainment and do not justify tighter monetary policy."
  • "I would look positively on inflation that is even higher than in this alternative scenario [positive scenario from the MPR]. A rate rise will hardly be justified before inflationary pressures and inflation expectations indicate that inflation would otherwise persistently overshoot the target by a clear margin."
  • "I take the view that the economic outlook needs to deteriorate quite significantly for me to advocate an expansion of monetary policy. A rate cut may become relevant if, for example, demand weakens broadly in the economy at the same time as confidence in the inflation target deteriorates. In the management of such a scenario, however, fiscal policy would also play an important role. Further asset purchases in addition to those we have communicated could become relevant primarily if turmoil arises on financial markets so that risk and term premiums rise without justification."
  • "It is still my view that we could have maintained the same expansionary conditions with a less extensive purchasing programme, but I nevertheless support today's decision... Changing the earlier decision and the previously communicated plan would lead to confusion and uncertainty."
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