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Minutes: Scotia Looking For Further Discussion On Terminal / Neutral Rates

FED

Scotia says that since the most eventful moment at the May press conference was Powell going "somewhat rogue" with his mention that a 75bp hike was not being considered "as opposed to the formal FOMC communications", it "might indicate that the minutes could be rather dull with the committee’s script having been laid out."

  • But they will be looking for the following items of interest in the minutes:
    • "further discussion around both terminal and neutral rates
    • discussion of recession risk
    • further discussion of wage-price spiral risks that Powell doused in his presser
    • a fuller discussion around the chosen pace of roll-off
    • potential discussion around optimal reserves"
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