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Minutes See BCB on Track for Another 100bps Hike

BRAZIL
  • BCB minutes from their March meeting show the bank will likely opt for another 100bps rate hike at the next meeting on May 4th, which would bring the SELIC rate up to 12.75%. The bank see inflation projections above the upper limit of the tolerance band for 2022 and around target for 2023, while the conflict in Europe adds further uncertainty to the outlook. The bank added that a significantly restrictive policy cycle is appropriate, and that they are ready to adjust the size of the cycle if needed.
  • Overnight, Valor reports that the government are to freeze around BRL 3bln in expenses from this year’s budget, and the government will struggle to meet this fiscal year’s primary result target. Forecasts cited by the paper point to a primary result of below BRL 100bln, resulting in some difficulty accommodating all expenses under the spending cap.
  • The Economy Ministry release their bimonthly 2022 budget report at 1430 local time (1730GMT/1330ET), while the BCB head Campos Neto attends a public event at 0930 local and meets with the Brazilian army commander Oliveira after the close.
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