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Mixed Core Goods CPI: Stronger Cars but Weaker Elsewhere?

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Ahead of tomorrow's US CPI print, we watch non used car core goods inflation to see whether recent downward pressures feed through to consumer prices.
  • A sharp tick lower in core PPI series back in March, including the first negative M/M print for PPI ex food & energy since Apr 2020, matched a step lower in the NY Fed’s GSCPI but wasn’t reflected in the CPI data at the time.
  • The improvement in supply chain pressures continued further in April, with the GSCPI touching 1.3 standard deviations below average for its lowest since Nov 2008.
  • Whilst not as structurally important as underlying services, a further moderation in core goods prices could be a welcome disinflationary driver in the near-term.
  • Full note found here.

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