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Mixed CPI Report, With Even Conflicting Core Three-Month Run Rates

CANADA
  • There’s plenty to digest in the CPI data, with headline missing at 2.8% Y/Y (cons median 3.0, range 2.9-3.1) but the average core measure clearer stronger than expected at 3.8% (cons 3.65%).
  • Remember that the three-month annualized figures are what the BoC has been focusing on though. We see no improvement in the trend rate firming from 3.65 to 3.74% annualized for the trim/median average (and BBG reported it at rising a tenth to 3.8%), coming from an acceleration back to 0.3% M/M in both measures.
  • However, the more traditional and simple measure of excl food & energy saw a second consecutive 0.14% M/M which meant a three-month rate of just 2.5% annualized for its softest since Apr’21.

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