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Mixed Open, Awaits RBA Gov. Lowe’s Speech & Q1 GDP

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs have shown a mixed performance at the market open (YM -2.0 & XM flat). This comes after the US tsy curve experienced a twist-flattening, ahead of significant T-bill auctions scheduled for this week. The US Treasury aims to replenish its funds following the recent suspension of the debt ceiling.

  • However, during early local trade, market participants are likely to be more focused on RBA Governor Lowe's speech this morning at 0020 BST (listen here). They hope to gain further insight into the RBA's thinking, particularly following yesterday's surprising 25bp rate hike. The market had priced a 30% chance of a hike going into the decision. RBA Deputy Governor Bullock is also scheduled to be a panel participant at the ABA Conference at 0050 BST (listen here).
  • Cash ACGBs opened flat to 1bp cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential +3bp at +14bp.
  • The swaps curve has opened with a twist flattening. Rates are 1bp higher to 1bp lower with EFPs 1bp tighter.
  • Bills are cheaper with pricing -2 to -4.
  • RBA dated OIS opened 1-2bp firmer across meetings.
  • Q1 GDP is also scheduled for release today with BBG consensus expecting +0.3% q/q and 2.4% y/y.
  • The AOFM plans A$700mn of the 3.75% 21 May 2034 bond today.
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