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Mizuho On Brazil: 2022 Economic Outlook Remains Sluggish

BRAZIL
  • The latest data in Brazil suggest that the economy rebounded in the last months of 2021. Indeed, industrial production surged 2.9% M/m in December, ending a string of six monthly declines.
  • Elsewhere, service activity advanced a further 1.4% M/m in December, following a 2.4% rebound in the previous month. Importantly, however, the data suggest a mild gain in Q4 as a whole.
  • Furthermore, while the economy may have ended last year on a firmer footing, a sharp rise of Covid infections early this year caused by the omicron variant means that the economy will likely lose momentum again.
  • Business confidence fell for a third consecutive month in January, with all four sectors covered in the survey registering declines.
  • According to the Brazilian National Vehicle Manufacturer ́s Association (Anfavea), vehicle production, which makes up a fifth of the manufacturing output in Brazil, fell sharply in January.
  • Overall, the economic outlook for this year remains sluggish. The central bank has pushed policy rates deep into restrictive territory to control inflation and there will be more rate hikes in the months ahead.
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