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Mizuho on Industrial Production Data Released Earlier Today

BRAZIL
  • Brazil’s industrial production unexpectedly fell 0.2% MoM in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of declining output and the ninth in the last ten months. Analysts were looking for a 0.1% MoM gain.
  • The breakdown of the manufacturing data showed a sharp decline in production of capital goods (-3.0% MoM) and production of intermediate goods was flat.
  • On a positive note, consumer goods output rose slightly (0.1% MoM) and mining activity rebounded 5.0% MoM.
  • Importantly, industrial production dropped 2.1% QoQ in the quarter through November, leaving a carryover of -1.4% for the fourth quarter. Thus, industry data show that the sector continues having trouble gaining traction amid high production costs and input supply problems.
  • Inventories remain low though, which provides room for some improvement going forward, but early indicators of industrial activity for December suggest that any growth will be moderate.
  • Industry confidence fell a further 1.9% MoM in December, with the current conditions index dropping 2.62%, and capacity utilization declined a full percentage point last month.
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