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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(U2) More Stable But Still Fragile

USDCAD TECHS

Trend Structure Remains Bullish

US TSYS

Cautious Risk Appetite Gains Momentum

AUDUSD TECHS

Key Support Still Exposed

US STOCKS

Late Equity Roundup: 2W Highs

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Mkt Roundup: Short Cover Support Ahead Key CPI Measure

US TSYS

Tsys off late overnight lows -- extending highs ahead key inflation CPI measure for March (+1.2% est) at 0830ET. Consensus has headline CPI surging +1.2% M/M in Feb on sharp rises in energy (~12% M/M) and less so food (1% M/M).

  • Yield curves scaling back small portion of steepening over last week (2s10s -2.299 at 25.138 vs. -9.561 inversion a week ago).
  • Robust volumes ahead the NY open, TYM2>500k, amid central bank buying in 2s recently, noted block buy in 5s (+3,947 FVM2 113-03, buy through 113-02.25 post-time offer at 0726:37ET).
  • Fresh cycle lows in June 10Y futures at 119-10.5 (-13.5) earlier vs. 119-28 (+4) last. Bear-trend extends: break lower confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies still point south w/ next key support at 119-04+ (Dec 3 2018 low (cont)).
  • Firmer June 30Y Bonds (USM2) 142-17 (+15) recent high vs. late O/N low of 141-06, 30YY currently at 2.7834 (+.0258) vs. 2.8555% high.
  • Current cross asset: Oil bouncing, West Texas Crude (WTI) +$4.17 (4.42%) at $98.50; Gold adding to Mon's rally +$6.25 (0.32%) at $1959.73. Stocks firmer, SPX eminis +10.25 (0.23%) at 4419.25.
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Tsys off late overnight lows -- extending highs ahead key inflation CPI measure for March (+1.2% est) at 0830ET. Consensus has headline CPI surging +1.2% M/M in Feb on sharp rises in energy (~12% M/M) and less so food (1% M/M).

  • Yield curves scaling back small portion of steepening over last week (2s10s -2.299 at 25.138 vs. -9.561 inversion a week ago).
  • Robust volumes ahead the NY open, TYM2>500k, amid central bank buying in 2s recently, noted block buy in 5s (+3,947 FVM2 113-03, buy through 113-02.25 post-time offer at 0726:37ET).
  • Fresh cycle lows in June 10Y futures at 119-10.5 (-13.5) earlier vs. 119-28 (+4) last. Bear-trend extends: break lower confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies still point south w/ next key support at 119-04+ (Dec 3 2018 low (cont)).
  • Firmer June 30Y Bonds (USM2) 142-17 (+15) recent high vs. late O/N low of 141-06, 30YY currently at 2.7834 (+.0258) vs. 2.8555% high.
  • Current cross asset: Oil bouncing, West Texas Crude (WTI) +$4.17 (4.42%) at $98.50; Gold adding to Mon's rally +$6.25 (0.32%) at $1959.73. Stocks firmer, SPX eminis +10.25 (0.23%) at 4419.25.