MNI 5 Things: Analysts Overbake Sept UK Retail Sales -- Again

By Laurie Laird, Jamie Satchi and Jai Lakhani

     LONDON (MNI) - The following are the key points from retail sales data

published Thursday by the Office for National Statistics.

     - Analysts overestimated their September forecast, extending a trend seen

over the past few years and noted in the MNI preview. Sales volumes were down

0.8% on the month, 0.04pp lower than the consensus analyst expectation.

     - September's result means the sector grew 1.2% q/q in Q3 and will likely

add 0.06 to quarterly GDP growth. The bulk of the strength, however, came in

July (0.9% m/m) and has receded since.

     - As widely expected and anticipated by MNI, food sales reversed

unusually-strong gains over the summer months, falling 1.5% m/m -- the sharpest

decline since October 2015.

     - Household good sales rose by 10.6% y/y -- the joint-highest since July

2015, driven by stronger-than-normal discounting. The household goods' price

deflator has fallen at a much faster pace than the headline retail deflator.

     - Rampant growth in internet sales ground to a halt, with on-line

transactions plunging by 2.1% in September, the sharpest fall since December

2016. That pushed internet sales down to 17.8% of total sale, down from 18.0% in

August.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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