MNI 5 THINGS. Australia Nov Unemployment Rate Seen Unch At 5%

By Lachlan Colquhoun

     SYDNEY (MNI) - The November Australian Labour Force Data will be released

on Thursday December 20. Here are five factors to look in the data release from

the Australian Bureau of Statistics:

Unemployment rate seen steady. 

     Analysts expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at a decade low 5.0%.

The rate has been at 5.0% since September, after beginning the year at 5.5%.

Reserve Bank watching closely. 

     Thursday's release is the last significant economic data release of the

year and will be watched closely by the RBA as a signal for the economy as we

head into 2019. The Bank is forecasting stronger employment to flow through to

higher wages, consumer spending and inflation -- a scenario in which the central

bank might change its monetary policy stance and raise rates for the first time

since November 2010. The Bank overestimated recent GDP data, anticipating an

annualised rate of over 3% for the September quarter against the result of a

disappointing 2.8% gain. A stable Labour Force reading would give the bank

confidence that its forecasts for 2019 remain on track.

Participation rate could fall. 

     The participation rate of Australians, either employed or seeking

employment, has moved in a tight band in recent months, and after increasing

0.1% in October is expected to fall 0.1% on Thursday to 65.5%, the same level as

in September. Analysts expect this to translate into between 10,000 and 20,000

new jobs, although the overall rate is expected to be unchanged.

Disparity between states. 

     The "two speed" nature of the Australian economy continues to be reflected

in the employment data. Economically strong states such as New South Wales and

Victoria recorded unemployment rates of 4.4 % and 4.5 % respectively in October,

while other states were higher. Western Australia, which is heavily dependent on

the mining industry, posted an unemployment rate of 5.7% in October, down from

6.0% in September as that state's economy has begun to improve. Employment in

drought affected Queensland, however, increased from 6.0% to 6.3% over the same

period. 

Growth in full time employment. 

     Since January the number of people in full time employment has increased by

182,900 and reached 8.7 million in October. In that time the number in part time

employment has fallen by 8,600 to 3.9 million. The RBA anticipates that growth

in full time employment will result in increased consumer spending, but the

positive impact of this has so far been limited by sluggish wages growth.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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