MNI: 5 THINGS: US November Payrolls Seen Up 190k,....>

MNI: 5 THINGS: US November Payrolls Seen Up 190k, But Upside Risk

- Upside Risk to Payrolls. Historically, analysts have shown a tendency to

underestimate headline payrolls in the month of November.

- Markets and Analysts Agree on AHE, No Risk. This month, both markets and

analysts are predicting that average hourly earnings will rise by 0.3%. In the

last year, markets have missed this value six times, with an even split between

overestimates and underestimates, and have been on target six times.

- Markets See Stronger Gain Than Analysts. Like with AHE, both markets and

analysts leaned toward underestimating headline payrolls in the last year.

- Initial Jobless Claims Signal Downside Risk. Although payrolls growth has been

robust in recent months, initial unemployment insurance claims ticked up

throughout November, with the current four week moving average at 228,000

compared with 214,000 at the end of November.

- ADP Report Corroborates Analyst Forecasts. On Thursday, the ADP Research

Institute released their monthly employment report, which reports hiring

activity by ADP client companies.