**MNI 5 THINGS: US October Payrolls +250k; Unemp Rate 3.7%>

--5 Things We Learned From The October Employment Data

By Kevin Kastner, Shikha Dave, and Harrison Clarke

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are the key points from the 

October employment report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 

Friday: 

     - The employment data were very strong. Payrolls growth was higher 

than expected with a 250,000 gain and the unemployment rate held steady 

at 3.7%. Hourly earnings posted a 0.2% gain after September's 0.3% rise, 

lifting the year/year rate to 3.1% from 2.8% on base effects. Average 

hours worked also advanced to 34.5 hours. BLS said Hurricane Michael had 

"no discernible effect" on the estimates in October and reporting was in 

normal ranges. 

     - The nonfarm payrolls gain was well above the 190,000 gain 

expected. The whisper number was for a 180,000 gain, so an even larger 

surprise to the upside. Likewise, private payrolls rose 246,000, 

compared with a 190,000 gain expected. An MNI analysis showed analysts 

have a tendency to overestimate payrolls in October, so today's data 

sharply deviate from that trend. 

     - Payrolls in August and September posted exactly offsetting 

revisions, with August payrolls revised up by 16,000 to 286,000 and 

September payrolls revised down by 16,000 to 118,000. Within October 

payrolls, there were solid gains for construction (+30k), manufacturing 

(+32k), transportation and warehousing (+25k), professional and business 

services (+35k) and health care (+47k). However, retail jobs posted only 

a modest 3,000 gain. 

     - The unemployment rate held steady as the participation rate rose 

to 62.9% from 62.7% in September. The unrounded unemployment rate was 

3.735%, on the high side of 3.7%. The rates for both men over 20 and 

women over 20 both rose in the month, offset by a drop in the teenage 

unemployment rate. Household employment was up 600,000, while the 

unemployed level rose by 111,000, so the labor force rose by 711,000. 

The alternate U-6 Rate slipped to 7.4% from 7.5% in September.     

     - Hourly earnings were up 0.2% in the month (+0.183% unrounded), vs 

+0.2% expected after an unrevised 0.3% gain in September. The year/year 

rate jumped to 3.1% due to base effects as October 2017 hourly earnings 

fell by 0.2%. The average workweek rose to 34.5 hours from 34.4 hours in 

September 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]