MNI ANALYSIS: Australia Trade Deficits Raise Q4 GDP Questions

--LNG Exports Up For Two Straight Months

--Imports Up in November But Exports Flat

By Sophia Rodrigues

     SYDNEY (MNI) -  - Australia's trade balance posted the biggest deficit in

13 months in November as exports remained flat and imports rose, while October's

balance was revised down into a deficit. 

     The trade deficits in the first two months of the fourth quarter raise

further worries about the contribution of net exports to Q4 GDP.

     Data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics Friday show the trade

balance recorded a deficit of A$628 million in November, the largest shortfall

since October last year. This followed a downward revision in the October

balance from a surplus of A$105 million to a deficit of A$302 million.

     The revisions also resulted in a small trade deficit of A$18 million in

April from a surplus of A$38 million. In original terms, the revisions resulted

in a turnaround from a surplus on goods and services of A$762 million to a

deficit of A$3 million for the four months to October.

     The November deficit was due mainly to a 1% rise in imports, as consumption

imports rose 3% m/m, or A$213 million, and capital goods imports rose 3%, or

A$190 million.

     Exports were flat m/m as rise in non-rural goods exports of 2%, or A$394

million, was offset by a fall of 23%, or A$425 million, in non-monetary gold

exports.

     In original terms, exports fell for three main commodities and rose for the

other three. The main drag came from iron ore lump and fines exports for the

second straight month but this was mainly offset by a 11% m/m rise in liquefied

natural gas exports. LNG exports rose for the second straight month with both

quantities and unit values up in November for the first time since June. 

     Below is table on International-trade data for November:

                                        November                         October

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                         (in A$)                         (in A$)

                             Seasonally Adjusted             Seasonally Adjusted

Trade                                                -302 mln (revised from +105

Balance                                 -628 mln                            mln)

                +500 mln (range -1.0 bln to +750

MNI Median                                  mln)

Exports                                31.85 bln                       31.71 bln

Imports                                32.48 bln                       32.01 bln

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com

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