MNI Analysis:British Columbia Still Drives Up Cdn House Prices>

--Sept New Housing Price Index +0.2% M/M; +3.8% Y/Y

By Yali N'Diaye

     OTTAWA (MNI) - Already vulnerable due to price acceleration and 

overvaluation, the housing market in British Columbia, notably 

Vancouver, continued to put upward pressure on national new house 

prices, which rose 0.2% in September after edging up 0.1% in August, 

data from Statistics Canada showed Thursday. 

     The 12-month growth pace remained at a solid 3.8%, a full point 

above where it stood a year earlier. 

     House only prices rose at a steady monthly pace of 0.1% in 

September, and picked up to 3.6% year-over-year from 3.5% in August. 

     Land only prices rose 0.3% on the month after remaining flat in 

August, with the 12-month rate ticking down to 4.6% from 4.7%. 

     On a quarterly basis, price growth slowed to 0.9% in the third 

quarter from 1.6% in the second quarter nationally. 

     The data continued to reflect the diverging trend between further 

price acceleration in the Vancouver area, and an ongoing slowdown in 

Toronto. 

     Prices in Toronto were flat for the fourth consecutive month in 

September, with the year-over-year rate decreasing to 6.4%, its lowest 

level since June 2016, marking a continuing slowdown since last May. 

     The Toronto market has been slowing since the introduction of 

tighter housing measures at the provincial level in April, with price 

gains slowing to 0.4% in the third quarter from 3.3% in the second 

quarter. 

     In Ontario, prices rose 5.9% year-over-year in September, with the 

third quarter gain to 0.6% from 2.7% in the second quarter. 

     Conversely, the already hot Vancouver market saw further price 

acceleration in September, with a monthly gain of 0.7% and a 12-month 

increase of 8.3%, the largest since July 2007. Year-over-year price 

increases have been accelerating since March this year. 

     Price growth picked up to 4.1% in the third quarter in Vancouver 

from 3.6% in the second quarter. At the provincial level, prices in 

British Columbia were up 3.5% in the third quarter after rising 3.1% the 

previous quarter. 

     Statistics Canada's NHPI excludes condominiums and apartments, 

hence failing to capture price movements in about one third of the 

market. 

     The more closely watched Teranet-National Bank National Composite 

House Price Index contracted 0.8% in September, the largest monthly 

decrease since September 2010. The 12-month growth rate declined to 

11.4%. 

--MNI Ottawa Bureau; email: yali.ndiaye@marketnews.com

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