MNI Asia Pac Weekly Macro Wrap: October 18 2024
MNI (SYDNEY) - Executive Summary:
JAPAN
Japan data this week saw a slowing in export growth, consistent with trends in other export orientated Asia economies. National CPI saw a slowing for September in y/y momentum, but core metrics came in above market expectations. This shouldn’t change the near term steady BoJ outlook. FX rhetoric started to pick up as USD/JPY broke above 150.00.
AUSTRALIA
September and Q3 labour market data were broadly positive with employment gains, hours worked, youth unemployment and underemployment all improving compared to Q2. The gradual easing appears to have stalled and thus the RBA is likely to remain on hold for now.
NEW ZEALAND
Q3 NZ CPI came in slightly below forecasts at 0.6%q/q. In annual terms inflation was 2.2%, in line with market expectations, while the RBNZ projected a 2.3% rise. Tradables were slightly below expectations at -0.2%q/q, while non-tradables were in line at 1.3%q/q (prior 0.9%). the RBNZ forecast non-tradables at 1.4%. There will be watch points for the RBNZ in terms of the stickiness of domestic price pressures, but this is unlikely to prevent the central bank form easing further in the near term. Retail spending appears to have stabilised helped by tax and rate cuts but remains weak. This data adds to surveys indicating that weak growth continued in Q3 but that it may improve next year, as the RBNZ expects.
SHORT TERM RATES
$-Bloc markets were softer over the past week apart from Australia.
CHINA
Policy meetings/briefings over the past week have largely reiterated already outlined stimulus plans. Q3 GDP showed a further easing in y/y momentum, while September activity was mixed, with property still a clear drag. The authorities look for improved growth/property momentum into year end.
ASIA
Central bank meetings dominated the past week. The MAS held steady in Singapore as expected. The BSP cut 25bps as expected, while BI in Indonesia was unchanged. BoT in Thailand surprised with a 25bps cut, but this is not expected to be the start of an aggressive easing cycle.
ASIA EQUITY FLOWS
Equity flows mixed in the past week. Taiwan got a boost following the TSMC earnings beat.
PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE: weekly macro round up (October 18 2024).pdf