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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(H1) Fragile Outlook

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Curve Lower, Flatter as Yields Reverse Off Cycle Highs

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Probes Key Support

MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis

1 December 2017
By Kyle Shortland
     
Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/phluope
AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (Z17) 98.020-060 Support Region Key 
*RES 4: 98.200 - Repeated daily highs June 
*RES 3: 98.168 - 100-WMA 
*RES 2: 98.130 - Low June 20 now resistance 
*RES 1: 98.110 - High Nov 28 & 29
*PRICE: 98.080 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 98.060 - Daily Lows Nov 
*SUP 2: 98.056 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 3: 98.020 - Low Nov 16 & 17 
*SUP 4: 97.970 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The break of the key 98.090 resistance has lacked follow through
and remains capped ahead of 98.130. Bulls need a close above 98.130 to initially
target 98.168-200 and above 98.200 to shift focus to tests of 98.350 June highs.
The 98.020-060 support region where 21 (98.056) & 200 (98.041) DMAs are noted
remains key. Bears need a close below 98.020 to ease bullish pressure and shift
focus back to 97.900-970.
AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (Z17) 97.4400 & 97.5200 Levels Key 
*RES 4: 97.6383 - Daily Bull channel top
*RES 3: 97.6100 - High June 27
*RES 2: 97.5242 - Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 97.5200 - Low June 20 now resistance
*PRICE: 97.4850 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 97.4400 - Hourly support Nov 22
*SUP 2: 97.4212 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 97.3950 - Low Now 20
*SUP 4: 97.3361 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The close above 97.4500 reconfirmed the bullish bias and saw
immediate focus back on 97.5200. Bulls continue to look for a close above
97.5200 to confirm focus on 97.6100-6750 where June highs are noted. The
Bollinger top (97.5242) remains the key concern for bulls. Bears still need a
close below 97.4400 to ease bullish pressure and shift initial focus to 97.3950.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 124-06+/124-19 Resistance Region Now Key
*RES 4: 124-28+ 55-DMA 
*RES 3: 124-19 Low Nov 27 now resistance 
*RES 2: 124-15+ Hourly resistance Nov 29 
*RES 1: 124-06+ Low Nov 14 now resistance
*PRICE: 124-01 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 123-27 Lows Oct 25 & 27
*SUP 2: 123-25 Low Mar 30
*SUP 3: 123-11+ Daily Bear channel base
*SUP 4: 123-07+ High Mar 13 now support
*COMMENTARY: The pop above the 55-DMA (124-28) lacked follow through Tuesday
with the sell-off resulting in a close below 124-06+ and bears now focused on
layers of support 122-21+/123-27. Bulls now need a close above 124-06+ to gain
breathing room and above 124-19 to return pressure to 124-28+/125-00 where the
55-DMA and bear channel top (124-29+) are situated.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.477 To Target 2017 Highs
*RES 4: 2.558 - Low Mar 13 now resistance 
*RES 3: 2.544 - High Mar 17 
*RES 2: 2.477 - Monthly High Oct 27 
*RES 1: 2.437 - High Nov 30
*PRICE: 2.417 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 2.401 - Hourly resistance Nov 30 now support 
*SUP 2: 2.374 - Hourly support Nov 29 
*SUP 3: 2.354 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: 2.310 - Low Nov 28
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA failed to produce a break lower with the
close above the 21-DMA Wednesday now seeing bulls initially focused on 2.477 Oct
highs. Bulls look for a close above this level to target 2.544-2.628 where 2017
highs are situated. Layers of support accumulating adds to bullish confidence.
Bears now need a close below 2.401 to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA
to shift focus back to 2.273-3.305.
JGB TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Need Close Above 151.01 
*RES 4: 151.33 - High Sept 12
*RES 3: 151.21 - Low Sept 2 now resistance
*RES 2: 151.13 - High Nov 24
*RES 1: 151.01 - Hourly resistance Nov 30
*PRICE: 150.89 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 150.84 - Low Nov 30 
*SUP 2: 150.66 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: 150.60 - 100-DMA 
*SUP 4: 150.56 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bearish pressure has resulted in a dip below the 21-DMA (150.88) as
the contract now trades below the bull channel base (150.94) and bears shift
focus to tests of key DMAs 150.56-66. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh
leg lower. Bulls now need a close above 151.01 to ease bearish pressure and
above 151.13 to shift initial pressure back to 151.21 and above this level to
target the channel top (151.49).
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]