MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis

18 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/phluope

AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (U18) 97.965 Resistance Remains Key 

*RES 4: 98.015 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 3: 97.965 - 2018 High July 2 

*RES 2: 97.964 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 97.950 - High July 4

*PRICE: 97.905 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 97.985 - Low July 17 

*SUP 2: 97.869 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: 97.860 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 97.840 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on recent 2018 & 8mth highs was

a concern for bulls with daily momentum divergence noted in past weeks, O/B

studies in general and the Bollinger top lurking just above. Bears now look for

a close below the 200-DMA to shift initial focus to 97.835-840 where 55 &

100-DMAs are located. Bulls still need a close above 97.965 to return focus to

98.017-038 where 100 & 200-WMAs are noted.

     AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (U18) Below 100-DMA To Target LT Rising TL 

*RES 4: 97.4400 - 2018 High Apr 3

*RES 3: 97.4269 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 97.4200 - High July 2

*RES 1: 97.4000 - High July 9

*PRICE: 97.3500 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 97.3166 - Daily Bull channel base off May Low

*SUP 2: 97.2900 - Low June 18

*SUP 3: 97.2726 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: 97.2658 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2018 highs is a concern for bulls given daily

studies correcting from O/B, daily momentum divergence and Bollinger tops

lingering above. Bulls need a close above 97.4400 to confirm a break of the

100-WMA (97.3606) and initially target 97.5000-5200. The 100-DMA is key support

this week. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to shift focus back to

97.1480-1725 where the LT rising TL off 2008 lows is located.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) 120-13/20 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a

*RES 3: 120-20  High July 6

*RES 2: 120-16+ Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 120-13  Hourly resistance June 12

*PRICE: 120-04 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 120-00  Lows July 10 & 16

*SUP 2: 119-30  Low July 3

*SUP 3: 119-26+ Low June 26

*SUP 4: 119-18+ 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips below the 21-DMA

(120-02+). Bears need a close below 119-26+ to confirm traction below the 21-DMA

and pressure 119-13+/18+ where the 55-DMA is found. The 120-13/20 resistance

region remains key. Bulls continue to look for a close above 120-13 to gain

breathing room and above 120-20 to confirm focus on the key 121-03/12 region.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 3: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 2: 2.884 - High July 3 

*RES 1: 2.877 - High July 16

*PRICE: 2.866 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 2.847 - Low July 17 

*SUP 2: 2.823 - Low July 16 

*SUP 3: 2.807 - Low July 6 

*SUP 4: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a

*COMMENTARY: Overall bearish focus remains on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are

noted with a close below 2.807 to add weight to their case. The Bollinger base

(2.808) remains key concern for bears and limits follow through. Bulls continue

to look for a close above 2.884 to gain breathing room and above 2.950 to

confirm breaks of 21, 55 & 100-DMAs and pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance

region.

     JGB TECHS: (U18) 100-DMA Now Supporting

*RES 4: 151.15 - 2018 High Mar 2

*RES 3: 151.13 - Monthly High May 30

*RES 2: 151.02 - Hourly resistance May 30

*RES 1: 150.96 - High July 13

*PRICE: 150.91 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 150.86 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: 150.80 - Low June 29 

*SUP 3: 150.71 - Low June 15 

*SUP 4: 150.60 - Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to take out the 151.02 resistance needed

to add support to the case for a test of the 151.13-19 resistance region. Daily

studies correcting from modestly O/B weighed in past weeks. Bears now need a

close below the 100-DMA to gain breathing room and below 150.80 to shift initial

focus to 150.71-74 where the 200-DMA is situated. Overall below 150.71 hints at

a move back to 150.39.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]