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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November
MNI BRIEF: RBA Holds, Notes Declining Inflation Risk
MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis
28 July 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking
*RES 4: $0.8163 - Monthly High May 14 2015
*RES 3: $0.8065 - 2017 High July 27
*RES 2: $0.8018 - Hourly resistance July 27
*RES 1: $0.7985 - Hourly support July 27 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7965 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7941 - Hourly resistance July 25 now support
*SUP 2: $0.7905 - Hourly support July 25
*SUP 3: $0.7874 - Low July 21
*SUP 4: $0.7838 - High July 17 now support
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 2017 and 26mth highs is
a concern for bulls with the Bollinger top capping and studies looking to
correct from O/B. There is an increased risk of a move back to $0.7838-74. Bears
need a close below $0.7838 to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to
$0.7749-90 where the 21-DMA ($0.7773) is located. Bulls need a close above
$0.8018 to reconfirm focus on $0.8163.
KIWI TECHS: $0.7458 Support Key Today
*RES 4: $0.7577 - High May 5 2015
*RES 3: $0.7528 - 2017 High July 27
*RES 2: $0.7536 - Hourly resistance July 27a
*RES 1: $0.7506 - Hourly resistance July 27
*PRICE: $0.7486 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7458 - High July 21 now support
*SUP 2: $0.7408 - Low July 26
*SUP 3: $0.7391 - Low July 21
*SUP 4: $0.7384 - Hourly support July 20
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2017 and 26mth highs is less
than ideal for bulls given daily studies looking to correct from O/S. In saying
that, bears continue to look for a close below $0.7458 to confirm an easing of
bullish pressure and to shift focus back to $0.7391-0.7408. Layers of resistance
are starting to build with bulls now needing a close above $0.7536 to retain
focus on $0.7577-0.7608 where 2015 highs and the bull channel top are located.
AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Immediate Focus Remains On The 200-DMA
*RES 4: NZ$1.0731 - Low July 20 now resistance
*RES 3: NZ$1.0713 - High July 26
*RES 2: NZ$1.0680 - High July 27
*RES 1: NZ$1.0655 - Hourly resistance July 27
*PRICE: NZ$1.0638 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0619 - Low July 27
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0606 - 200-DMA
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0582 - 21-DMA
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0553 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the 100-DMA (NZ$1.0679) continues with the
failure to trouble NZ$1.0731 leaving the pair looking heavy and pressure back on
layers of support NZ$1.0553-1.0606 where key DMAs are clustered. Bears look for
a close below the 55-DMA to confirm focus on retests of 2017 lows. Bulls now
look for a close above NZ$1.0680 to gain breathing room but a close above
NZ$1.0731 remains needed to shift focus back to NZ$1.0845 July highs so far.
AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y88.17 Support Key Today
*RES 4: Y89.67 - Bollinger band top
*RES 3: Y89.47 - Low Dec 7 2015 now resistance
*RES 2: Y89.41 - 2017 High July 27
*RES 1: Y88.75 - Hourly support July 26 now resistance
*PRICE: Y88.67 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: Y88.17 - Low July 26
*SUP 2: Y87.48 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: Y87.45 - Hourly support July 13
*SUP 4: Y87.24 - High Mar 20 now support
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 17mth highs lacked follow through Thursday which is
less than ideal for bulls given daily studies correcting from O/B. The Y88.17
support is key today with bears needing a close below to shift focus back to
Y87.45-48 where the 21-DMA is located. Below the 21-DMA is needed to shift focus
back to Y85.67. Bulls need a close above Y88.75 today to gain breathing room and
retain immediate focus on fresh 2017 highs.
EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 21-DMA
*RES 4: A$1.4775 - 21-DMA
*RES 3: A$1.4765 - High July 26
*RES 2: A$1.4724 - Hourly resistance July 26a
*RES 1: A$1.4699 - Hourly resistance July 26
*PRICE: A$1.4648 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.4594 - Hourly support July 27, 100-DMA
*SUP 2: A$1.4565 - Low July 27
*SUP 3: A$1.4486 - Hourly support July 20
*SUP 4: A$1.4422 - Low July 20
*COMMENTARY: Repeated hesitation ahead of the A$1.4797 and 21 (A$1.4775) & 55
(A$1.4852) DMAs is taking its toll with the pair dipping below the 100-DMA
Thursday. Bears now look for a close below A$1.4565 to confirm a break of the
100-DMA and focus on A$1.4397-1.4422 where the 200-DMA is located. Bulls
continue to look for a close above A$1.4797 to confirm an easing of bearish
pressure and above the 55-DMA to shift focus back to A$1.5078.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 94.602
*RES 4: 94.602 - Hourly support July 20 now resistance
*RES 3: 94.357 - Hourly resistance July 21
*RES 2: 94.285 - High July 26
*RES 1: 94.103 - High July 27
*PRICE: 93.924 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 93.650 - Hourly support July 27
*SUP 2: 93.152 - 2017 Low July 27
*SUP 3: 93.019 - Monthly Low June 23 2016
*SUP 4: 92.270 - 200-WMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of downside follow through on fresh 2017 and 13mth lows is
less than ideal for bears when combined with daily studies looking to correct
from O/S. Bulls now look for a close above 94.602 to confirm an easing of
bearish pressure and shift focus to 95.163-95.464 where the 21-DMA (95.163) is
noted. Initial support is now noted at 93.650 with bears needing a close below
to retain focus on tests of the 200-WMA.
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Below $1.1583 To Shift Focus Lower
*RES 4: $1.1803 Daily Bull channel top
*RES 3: $1.1776 High July 27
*RES 2: $1.1733 Hourly resistance July 27
*RES 1: $1.1688 Hourly support July 27 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.1677 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1648 Hourly support July 27
*SUP 2: $1.1611 Low July 26
*SUP 3: $1.1583 High July 18 now support
*SUP 4: $1.1562 Hourly support July 20
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the daily bull channel top is less than ideal
and has resulted in a correction leaving the pair looking a little heavy. The
$1.1648 support is key today with bears now needing a close below to shift focus
back to $1.1583-1.1611. A close below $1.1583 is needed to confirm a shift in
initial focus back to $1.1369-1.1495 where the 21-DMA and bull channel base are
noted. Bulls need a close above $1.1688 to gain breathing room.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y111.70 Resistance Confirms Significance
*RES 4: Y112.53 21-DMA
*RES 3: Y112.18 High July 26
*RES 2: Y111.70 Hourly support July 26 now resistance
*RES 1: Y111.25 Hourly support July 27 now resistance
*PRICE: Y111.20 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y110.75 Low June 27
*SUP 2: Y110.66 Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: Y110.62 Low June 16
*SUP 4: Y110.34 High June 14 now support
*COMMENTARY: Focus has returned to Y110.34-62 following the rejection above the
200-DMA (Y112.10) Wednesday. Hesitation ahead of this region is less than ideal
for bears with daily studies lingering at O/S. Bulls look for a close above
Y111.70 to shift focus to Y112.18-87 where the 21-DMA is located. Bears take
comfort in Y111.70 capping but now need a close below Y110.75 to reconfirm focus
on Y110.34-62. A close below Y110.34 then targets Y108.81-109.25.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1242.4-1252.7 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: $1295.9 - 2017 High June 6
*RES 3: $1280.8 - High June 14
*RES 2: $1266.5 - High June 15
*RES 1: $1265.2 - Bollinger band top
*PRICE: $1259.6 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $1252.7 - Hourly resistance July 25 now support
*SUP 2: $1242.4 - Alternating hourly support/resistance
*SUP 3: $1235.2 - Hourly support July 18
*SUP 4: $1234.7 - 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the dip Wednesday with the gold
finding support ahead of $1242.4 and resulting in a close above the $1258.8
resistance that sees immediate focus ton $1280.8 and overall focus on tests of
2017 highs. The Bollinger top is the key concern and currently caps. Layers of
support are building with bears needing a close below $1252.7 to ease bullish
pressure and below $1242.4 to shift focus lower.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.