MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

21 November 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Flirting With 100-WMA

*RES 4: $0.7695 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7656 - Daily Bear channel top

*RES 2: $0.7609 - High Nov 16

*RES 1: $0.7579 - Hourly support Nov 17 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7546 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7543 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7519 - Low June 9 

*SUP 3: $0.7456 - Weekly Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: $0.7415 - Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA in recent weeks retains the

integrity of the daily bear channel with focus currently on the $0.7456-0.7543

region where the 100-WMA and bull channel base are situated. Bears need a close

below $0.7519 to reconfirm the bearish bias and below the weekly bull channel

base to target $0.7319-65. Bulls look for a close above $0.7609 to gain

breathing room and hint at a correction back to $0.7666-0.7729.

KIWI TECHS: Focus On Daily Bear Channel Base

*RES 4: $0.6979 - High Nov 9 

*RES 3: $0.6896 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 2: $0.6890 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $0.6839 - High Nov 20

*PRICE: $0.6808 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6779 - 2017 Low Nov 17

*SUP 2: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016

*SUP 3: $0.6608 - Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 4: $0.6543 - Low Feb 16 2016

*COMMENTARY: The failure around the 21-DMA in past weeks retained the integrity

of the bear channel top, resulting in fresh 2017 and 18mth lows Friday leaving

the pair looking heavy and bears focused on the daily bear channel base. The

Bollinger base ($0.6804) is the key concern for bears and limits follow through.

Bulls now need above $0.6839 to gain breathing room and above the bear channel

top to shift focus to $0.6979-0.7048.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Below NZ$1.0984 Initially Targets 100-DMA

*RES 4: NZ$1.1240 - High Oct 26

*RES 3: NZ$1.1185 - High Nov 1

*RES 2: NZ$1.1139 - High Nov 14

*RES 1: NZ$1.1115 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: NZ$1.1086 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.1032 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0984 - Low Nov 15

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0902 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0821 - Low Sept 21

*COMMENTARY: The break of the NZ$1.0992 support lacked follow through with the

pair failing to gain traction below the 55-DMA last week. Bears now look for a

close below NZ$1.0984 to confirm a bearish bias and initially target the

100-DMA. The NZ$1.1139 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above this

level to confirm a break of the 21-DMA, ending bearish hopes and shifting focus

back to tests of 2017 highs (NZ$1.1290).

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Above 200-DMA To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: Y86.58 - High Nov 15 

*RES 3: Y86.12 - Hourly resistance Nov 15 

*RES 2: Y86.00 - 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y85.45 - Hourly support Nov 17 now resistance

*PRICE: Y85.04 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y84.48 - Low Nov 20

*SUP 2: Y83.72 - Low June 22

*SUP 3: Y83.18 - 100-WMA

*SUP 4: Y82.92 - Low June 15

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined last week with the pair distancing itself from the

200-DMA and immediate focus having shifted to the 100-WMA. Bears now look for a

close below the 100-WMA to target 2017 lows (Y81.49). O/S daily studies and the

Bollinger base (Y85.04) remain key concerns for bears and hint the move is a

little overdone. In saying that, bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to ease

bearish pressure.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Above A$1.5774 Targets 2016 High 

*RES 4: A$1.5774 - High Feb 17 2016

*RES 3: A$1.5660 - Daily Bull channel top

*RES 2: A$1.5656 - 2017 High Nov 17

*RES 1: A$1.5610 - High Nov 20

*PRICE: A$1.5538 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5447 - Low Nov 15 

*SUP 2: A$1.5392 - Monthly High Oct 26 now support 

*SUP 3: A$1.5251 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: A$1.5195 - Low Nov 13

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble the 55-DMA (A$1.5092) in recent weeks retained

the integrity of the daily bull channel base (A$1.5146) and resulted in gains

testing the bull channel top. The A$1.5774 resistance remains key with bulls

needing a close above to confirm focus on 2016 highs. Layers of support remain

with bears needing a close below A$1.5392 to shift focus back to the 21-DMA

(A$1.5251). O/B studies looking to correct remain the key concern for bulls.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 94.365-650 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 95.167 - High July 20 

*RES 3: 94.650 - High Nov 10 

*RES 2: 94.365 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 94.178 - Hourly resistance Nov 14

*PRICE: 94.077 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 93.624 - 100-DMA

*SUP 2: 93.398 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 93.055 - Low Oct 19

*SUP 4: 92.724 - High Sept 25 now support

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined last week with the close below the 21-DMA seeing

pressure back on key supports. Bulls take comfort in the bounce from ahead of

this region Monday but continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA to ease

bearish pressure and above 94.650 to shift focus back to 95.167-464. Bears

continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to add weight to the case for a

move back to 2017 lows although a close below 92.724 remains needed to confirm.

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1.2033 High Sept 20

*RES 3: $1.1880 High Oct 12

*RES 2: $1.1861 High Nov 15 

*RES 1: $1.1822 High Nov 17

*PRICE: $1.1732 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1722 Low Nov 20 

*SUP 2: $1.1687 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.1678 High Nov 10 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1638 Hourly support Nov 9 & 10

*COMMENTARY: The break of the bear channel top and 100-DMA last week saw a

rally, only to remain capped ahead of the previously noted $1.1880 resistance.

Bulls continue to look for a close above $1.1880 to confirm traction above the

55-DMA ($1.1788) and initially target $1.2033. Daily studies approaching O/B is

less than ideal and the Bollinger top ($1.1836) recently limited follow through.

Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to target $1.1554.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y111.48 & Y112.72 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 3: Y113.52 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y113.33 High Nov 16 

*RES 1: Y112.72 Low Nov 16 now resistance

*PRICE: Y112.65 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.35 Hourly resistance Nov 20 now support 

*SUP 2: Y111.72 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y111.65 Low Oct 16 

*SUP 4: Y111.48 Low Sept 25

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of 100 & 200-DMAs

(Y111.72-74) and a likely close above the 55-DMA. In saying that, bulls continue

to look for a close above Y112.72 to ease bearish pressure and shift initial

focus to Y113.33-49 where the 21-DMA is noted. Bears need a close below Y111.48

to confirm a break of 100 & 200-DMAs with initial focus shifting to Y109.52 and

overall focus to Y107.30 2017 lows.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Focus Back On Key Supports

*RES 4: $1306.0 - High Oct 16 

*RES 3: $1297.0 - Hourly Nov 17 

*RES 2: $1290.1 - Hourly resistance Nov 20 

*RES 1: $1281.1 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: $1276.8 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 

*SUP 2: $1264.6 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1260.1 - Monthly Low Oct 6 

*SUP 4: $1258.1 - Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on Friday's close above the 55-DMA with

Friday's gains erased, gold looking heavy once more and focus back on the daily

bull channel base and 200-DMA. Bulls now look for a close above $1297.0 to

confirm a break of the 55-DMA ($1291.5) and confirm focus on $1306.0-1320.0.

Bears look for a close below the channel base to hint at a move back to July

lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]