MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

25 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.8162 Targets $0.8295-0.8450

*RES 4: $0.8295 - 2015 High Jan 15

*RES 3: $0.8162 - Monthly high May 14 2015

*RES 2: $0.8124 - 2017 High Sept 8

*RES 1: $0.8102 - High Sept 20

*PRICE: $0.8071 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.8038 - High Sept 21 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7990 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 3: $0.7954 - Low Jan 23 

*SUP 4: $0.7935 - Low Jan 16

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation came to an end with a break and likely bullish

close that sees immediate focus on $0.8102-62 where 2017 highs are noted. Bulls

look for a close above $0.8162 to shift focus to $0.8295-0.8542 where the weekly

bull channel top ($0.8450) is noted. Bears now look for a close below $0.8038 to

gain breathing room and below Wednesday's low to target a correction back to

$0.7874-0.7916 where the 21-DMA is noted.

KIWI TECHS: Bulls Focused On 2017 High

*RES 4: $0.7558 - 2017 High July 27 

*RES 3: $0.7525 - High July 28 

*RES 2: $0.7458 - Low July 28 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.7433 - Monthly High Sept 20

*PRICE: $0.7425 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7377 - Hourly resistance Jan 24 now support

*SUP 2: $0.7300 - Hourly support Jan 23

*SUP 3: $0.7244 - Low Jan 18

*SUP 4: $0.7233 - Low Jan 17

*COMMENTARY: Gains continue for the pair with bulls looking for a close above

$0.7433 to add support to the case for a test of 2017 highs, which bulls are

currently focused on. O/B studies and the Bollinger top ($0.7410) remain

concerns for bulls but are not currently impacting. Bears now look for a close

below $0.7377 to gain breathing room and below $0.7300 to initially target a

correction back to the 21-DMA ($0.7210).

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Currently Targeting NZ$1.0732-1.0840

*RES 4: NZ$1.1006 - 100-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0990 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0920 - Low Jan 22 now resistance

*RES 1: NZ$1.0907 - High Jan 24

*PRICE: NZ$1.0874 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0841 - 200-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0824 - Monthly Low Sept 21

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0807 - 55-WMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0732 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The 55 & 100-DMAs have proven significance having capped the

recovery from 2018 lows with pressure back on NZ$1.0824-40 where the 200-DMA is

located. The 100-WMA remains key support. Bears need a close below the 100-WMA

(NZ$1.0732) to initially target 2017 lows. Layers of resistance have accumulated

on the sell-off with bulls now needing a close above NZ$1.0920 to ease pressure

on key supports and above the 100-DMA to shift focus higher.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: 100-DMA Support Now Key

*RES 4: Y89.67 - High Sept 25 

*RES 3: Y89.09 - High Oct 23 

*RES 2: Y88.78 - Hourly support Jan 23 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y88.44 - High Jan 24

*PRICE: Y88.13 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y87.73 - Low Jan 16

*SUP 2: Y87.33 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: Y86.72 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: Y86.34 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls again failed to take out Y89.09 with the correction leaving

the pair looking a little heavy. The 100-DMA is now key support. Bears look for

a close below the 100-DMA to initially focus on Y85.92-86.64 where 55 & 200-DMAs

are situated. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y89.09 reconfirm a

bullish bias and focus on tests of 2017 highs (Y90.30). The Bollinger band top

is the key concern for bulls and limits follow through.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above A$1.5446

*RES 4: A$1.5526 - High Dec 20

*RES 3: A$1.5467 - Hourly support Dec 21 now resistance

*RES 2: A$1.5446 - High Jan 12

*RES 1: A$1.5429 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: A$1.5367 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5273 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 2: A$1.5258 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.5189 - Hourly resistance Jan 11 now support 

*SUP 4: A$1.5148 - 2018 Low Jan 11

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains supported ahead of the 100-DMA after having failed

to gain traction above the 55-DMA in recent weeks. Bulls continue to look for a

close above A$1.5446 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA, regaining the upper hand

and returning focus to tests of 2017 highs (A$1.5774). Bears continue to look

for a close below the 100-DMA to reconfirm focus on A$1.5034-79 where the

200-DMA is situated.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Targeting 88.125

*RES 4: 90.704 - High Jan 22 

*RES 3: 90.294 - Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 2: 90.113 - Hourly resistance Jan 24 

*RES 1: 89.581 - Hourly support Jan 24 now resistance

*PRICE: 89.202 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 88.921 - Low Dec 18 2014

*SUP 2: 88.125 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*SUP 3: 87.701 - Weekly Bear channel base

*SUP 4: 87.630 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*COMMENTARY: Having remained capped ahead of 91.011 has taken its toll and

resulted in a break of 90.113 adding weight to the case for a move targeting

88.125 Dec 2014 monthly lows with O/S daily studies remaining their key concern.

Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing. Bulls now need a close above

89.581 to gain breathing room and above 91.011 to hint at a correction initially

targeting 91.526-751.

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Targeting LT Bear Channel Top

*RES 4: $1.2770 High Oct 29 2014 now support

*RES 3: $1.2686 LT Weekly Bear Channel top (Off 2008 High)

*RES 2: $1.2599 Monthly High Nov 19 2014

*RES 1: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014

*PRICE: $1.2410 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2356 Hourly resistance Jan 24 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2270 Hourly support Jan 24 

*SUP 3: $1.2213 Low Jan 22 

*SUP 4: $1.2156 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips continues to produce fresh 2018 and 3+yr

highs and adds support to the case for a test of the LT weekly bear channel top

around $1.2686. O/B daily studies and the Bollinger band top ($1.2394) remain

key concerns for bulls. Bears now look for a close below $1.2360 to gain

breathing room and below $1.2156 to hint at a correction back to $1.1862-1.1914

with below $1.2075 to confirm.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Now Targeting 2017 Low

*RES 4: Y110.55 Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 3: Y110.18 Low Jan 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y109.52 Low Sept 15 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y109.36 Hourly support Jan 24 now resistance

*PRICE: Y109.06 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.12 Low Sept 11 

*SUP 2: Y107.58 Weekly Triangle base 

*SUP 3: Y107.31 2017 Low Sept 8 

*SUP 4: Y104.95 Low Now 10 2016

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive move lower from last week's highs sees the pair

closing below the daily bear channel base and Y109.52 support with immediate

focus now on Y107.31-58 where 2017 lows and the weekly triangle base are

located. O/S daily studies and Bollinger base (Y109.43) remain concerns but at

present are not impacting. Bulls now need a close above Y110.18 to ease bearish

pressure and target a correction back to Y111.22-98 where key DMAs are noted.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y134.81 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 3: Y136.62 2018 High Jan 5, Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Y136.32 High Jan 8

*RES 1: Y135.71 Hourly resistance Jan 23

*PRICE: Y135.31 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.81 Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 2: Y134.39 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: Y133.60 Hourly support Jan 11 

*SUP 4: Y133.33 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The Y134.81 support confirmed significance with the pair bouncing

ahead following a dip below the 21-DMA. Bears look for a close below Y134.81 to

ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to the 21-WMA (133.35) and 100-DMA

(Y133.25). Below the 100-DMA shifts focus to Y130.59-132.03. While Y134.81

supports focus remains on the close above Y136.62 needed to confirm focus on

Y139.02-141.05 but bulls now need a close above Y135.71 to gain breathing room.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Above 2016 High Targets $1391.8-1433.3

*RES 4: $1433.3 - Monthly High Aug 28 2013 

*RES 3: $1391.8 - 2014 High Mar 17 

*RES 2: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 1: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016

*PRICE: $1360.0 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1355.8 - Hourly resistance Jan 24 now support 

*SUP 2: $1344.5 - 2018 High Jan 15 now support 

*SUP 3: $1331.2 - Low Jan 23 

*SUP 4: $1321.2 - Hourly support Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the mid Jan correction has resulted in fresh 2018

& 18mth highs with immediate bullish focus currently on 2016 highs and a close

above then targeting $1391.8-1433.3. The Bollinger top ($1358.1) remains the key

concern for bulls. Layers of support building adds to bullish confidence with

bears now needing a close below $1344.5 to ease bullish pressure and hint at a

correction back to the 21-DMA ($1321.4).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]