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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: EC Gets Flexible As NGEU Payment Deadline Looms
MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, October 10
MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis
25 January 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.8162 Targets $0.8295-0.8450
*RES 4: $0.8295 - 2015 High Jan 15
*RES 3: $0.8162 - Monthly high May 14 2015
*RES 2: $0.8124 - 2017 High Sept 8
*RES 1: $0.8102 - High Sept 20
*PRICE: $0.8071 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.8038 - High Sept 21 now support
*SUP 2: $0.7990 - Low Jan 24
*SUP 3: $0.7954 - Low Jan 23
*SUP 4: $0.7935 - Low Jan 16
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation came to an end with a break and likely bullish
close that sees immediate focus on $0.8102-62 where 2017 highs are noted. Bulls
look for a close above $0.8162 to shift focus to $0.8295-0.8542 where the weekly
bull channel top ($0.8450) is noted. Bears now look for a close below $0.8038 to
gain breathing room and below Wednesday's low to target a correction back to
$0.7874-0.7916 where the 21-DMA is noted.
KIWI TECHS: Bulls Focused On 2017 High
*RES 4: $0.7558 - 2017 High July 27
*RES 3: $0.7525 - High July 28
*RES 2: $0.7458 - Low July 28 now resistance
*RES 1: $0.7433 - Monthly High Sept 20
*PRICE: $0.7425 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7377 - Hourly resistance Jan 24 now support
*SUP 2: $0.7300 - Hourly support Jan 23
*SUP 3: $0.7244 - Low Jan 18
*SUP 4: $0.7233 - Low Jan 17
*COMMENTARY: Gains continue for the pair with bulls looking for a close above
$0.7433 to add support to the case for a test of 2017 highs, which bulls are
currently focused on. O/B studies and the Bollinger top ($0.7410) remain
concerns for bulls but are not currently impacting. Bears now look for a close
below $0.7377 to gain breathing room and below $0.7300 to initially target a
correction back to the 21-DMA ($0.7210).
AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Currently Targeting NZ$1.0732-1.0840
*RES 4: NZ$1.1006 - 100-DMA
*RES 3: NZ$1.0990 - 55-DMA
*RES 2: NZ$1.0920 - Low Jan 22 now resistance
*RES 1: NZ$1.0907 - High Jan 24
*PRICE: NZ$1.0874 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0841 - 200-DMA
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0824 - Monthly Low Sept 21
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0807 - 55-WMA
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0732 - 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: The 55 & 100-DMAs have proven significance having capped the
recovery from 2018 lows with pressure back on NZ$1.0824-40 where the 200-DMA is
located. The 100-WMA remains key support. Bears need a close below the 100-WMA
(NZ$1.0732) to initially target 2017 lows. Layers of resistance have accumulated
on the sell-off with bulls now needing a close above NZ$1.0920 to ease pressure
on key supports and above the 100-DMA to shift focus higher.
AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: 100-DMA Support Now Key
*RES 4: Y89.67 - High Sept 25
*RES 3: Y89.09 - High Oct 23
*RES 2: Y88.78 - Hourly support Jan 23 now resistance
*RES 1: Y88.44 - High Jan 24
*PRICE: Y88.13 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y87.73 - Low Jan 16
*SUP 2: Y87.33 - 100-DMA
*SUP 3: Y86.72 - 55-DMA
*SUP 4: Y86.34 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bulls again failed to take out Y89.09 with the correction leaving
the pair looking a little heavy. The 100-DMA is now key support. Bears look for
a close below the 100-DMA to initially focus on Y85.92-86.64 where 55 & 200-DMAs
are situated. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y89.09 reconfirm a
bullish bias and focus on tests of 2017 highs (Y90.30). The Bollinger band top
is the key concern for bulls and limits follow through.
EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above A$1.5446
*RES 4: A$1.5526 - High Dec 20
*RES 3: A$1.5467 - Hourly support Dec 21 now resistance
*RES 2: A$1.5446 - High Jan 12
*RES 1: A$1.5429 - 55-DMA
*PRICE: A$1.5367 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.5273 - Low Jan 24
*SUP 2: A$1.5258 - 100-DMA
*SUP 3: A$1.5189 - Hourly resistance Jan 11 now support
*SUP 4: A$1.5148 - 2018 Low Jan 11
*COMMENTARY: The pair remains supported ahead of the 100-DMA after having failed
to gain traction above the 55-DMA in recent weeks. Bulls continue to look for a
close above A$1.5446 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA, regaining the upper hand
and returning focus to tests of 2017 highs (A$1.5774). Bears continue to look
for a close below the 100-DMA to reconfirm focus on A$1.5034-79 where the
200-DMA is situated.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Targeting 88.125
*RES 4: 90.704 - High Jan 22
*RES 3: 90.294 - Hourly resistance Jan 23
*RES 2: 90.113 - Hourly resistance Jan 24
*RES 1: 89.581 - Hourly support Jan 24 now resistance
*PRICE: 89.202 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 88.921 - Low Dec 18 2014
*SUP 2: 88.125 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014
*SUP 3: 87.701 - Weekly Bear channel base
*SUP 4: 87.630 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014
*COMMENTARY: Having remained capped ahead of 91.011 has taken its toll and
resulted in a break of 90.113 adding weight to the case for a move targeting
88.125 Dec 2014 monthly lows with O/S daily studies remaining their key concern.
Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing. Bulls now need a close above
89.581 to gain breathing room and above 91.011 to hint at a correction initially
targeting 91.526-751.
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Targeting LT Bear Channel Top
*RES 4: $1.2770 High Oct 29 2014 now support
*RES 3: $1.2686 LT Weekly Bear Channel top (Off 2008 High)
*RES 2: $1.2599 Monthly High Nov 19 2014
*RES 1: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014
*PRICE: $1.2410 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2356 Hourly resistance Jan 24 now support
*SUP 2: $1.2270 Hourly support Jan 24
*SUP 3: $1.2213 Low Jan 22
*SUP 4: $1.2156 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support
*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips continues to produce fresh 2018 and 3+yr
highs and adds support to the case for a test of the LT weekly bear channel top
around $1.2686. O/B daily studies and the Bollinger band top ($1.2394) remain
key concerns for bulls. Bears now look for a close below $1.2360 to gain
breathing room and below $1.2156 to hint at a correction back to $1.1862-1.1914
with below $1.2075 to confirm.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Now Targeting 2017 Low
*RES 4: Y110.55 Hourly resistance Jan 23
*RES 3: Y110.18 Low Jan 18 now resistance
*RES 2: Y109.52 Low Sept 15 now resistance
*RES 1: Y109.36 Hourly support Jan 24 now resistance
*PRICE: Y109.06 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.12 Low Sept 11
*SUP 2: Y107.58 Weekly Triangle base
*SUP 3: Y107.31 2017 Low Sept 8
*SUP 4: Y104.95 Low Now 10 2016
*COMMENTARY: The aggressive move lower from last week's highs sees the pair
closing below the daily bear channel base and Y109.52 support with immediate
focus now on Y107.31-58 where 2017 lows and the weekly triangle base are
located. O/S daily studies and Bollinger base (Y109.43) remain concerns but at
present are not impacting. Bulls now need a close above Y110.18 to ease bearish
pressure and target a correction back to Y111.22-98 where key DMAs are noted.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y134.81 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015
*RES 3: Y136.62 2018 High Jan 5, Bollinger band top
*RES 2: Y136.32 High Jan 8
*RES 1: Y135.71 Hourly resistance Jan 23
*PRICE: Y135.31 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y134.81 Hourly support Jan 12
*SUP 2: Y134.39 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*SUP 3: Y133.60 Hourly support Jan 11
*SUP 4: Y133.33 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The Y134.81 support confirmed significance with the pair bouncing
ahead following a dip below the 21-DMA. Bears look for a close below Y134.81 to
ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to the 21-WMA (133.35) and 100-DMA
(Y133.25). Below the 100-DMA shifts focus to Y130.59-132.03. While Y134.81
supports focus remains on the close above Y136.62 needed to confirm focus on
Y139.02-141.05 but bulls now need a close above Y135.71 to gain breathing room.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Above 2016 High Targets $1391.8-1433.3
*RES 4: $1433.3 - Monthly High Aug 28 2013
*RES 3: $1391.8 - 2014 High Mar 17
*RES 2: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016
*RES 1: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016
*PRICE: $1360.0 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $1355.8 - Hourly resistance Jan 24 now support
*SUP 2: $1344.5 - 2018 High Jan 15 now support
*SUP 3: $1331.2 - Low Jan 23
*SUP 4: $1321.2 - Hourly support Jan 12
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the mid Jan correction has resulted in fresh 2018
& 18mth highs with immediate bullish focus currently on 2016 highs and a close
above then targeting $1391.8-1433.3. The Bollinger top ($1358.1) remains the key
concern for bulls. Layers of support building adds to bullish confidence with
bears now needing a close below $1344.5 to ease bullish pressure and hint at a
correction back to the 21-DMA ($1321.4).
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.