MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

15 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

     AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7975 Targets $0.8118-62

*RES 4: $0.8043 - High Feb 2

*RES 3: $0.7985 - Low Feb 1 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7961 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7954 - High Feb 5

*PRICE: $0.7919 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7867 - Hourly support Feb 14 

*SUP 2: $0.7819 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7771 - Low Feb 14 

*SUP 4: $0.7761 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from another dip back towards the 200-DMA has been

aggressive and sees bulls looking for a close above $0.7985 to confirm a break

of the 21-DMA and return focus to the $0.8118-62 region where 2018 highs are

noted. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg higher. Bears now need a

close below $0.7867 to gain breathing room. Overall below $0.7729 confirms

breaks of DMA & WMAS & shifts focus back to $0.7500 Dec lows.

KIWI TECHS: Focus Back On 2018 High

*RES 4: $0.7458 - Low July 28 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7435 - 2018 High Jan 24 

*RES 2: $0.7420 - High Jan 31 

*RES 1: $0.7405 - High Feb 2

*PRICE: $0.7363 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7328 - Hourly support Feb 14

*SUP 2: $0.7284 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support

*SUP 3: $0.7238 - Low Feb 14

*SUP 4: $0.7230 - Low Feb 12

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low has seen higher daily highs and

lows with Wednesday's gains enough to return focus to tests of 2018 highs. Bulls

look for a close above to then target $0.7558 2017 highs. Daily studies are well

place for gains. Bears now need a close below $0.7328 to gain breathing room and

below $0.7230 to shift focus back to $0.7130-74 where 55 ($0.7142) & 200

($0.7153) DMAs are situated.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Below NZ$1.0708 To Confirm 100-WMA Break

*RES 4: NZ$1.0891 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0848 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0808 - High Feb 14

*RES 1: NZ$1.0780 - Hourly resistance Feb 14

*PRICE: NZ$1.0749 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0724 - 100-WMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0708 - Low Oct 10

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*COMMENTARY: The pair has remained capped ahead of the 200-DMA with Wednesday's

sell-off resulting in fresh 2018 & 6mth lows although follow through below the

100-WMA is lacking. Bears now need a close below NZ$1.0708 to confirm a break of

the 100-WMA and shift focus to NZ$1.0446-91 where the LT rising TL is located.

Bulls now need a close above the 200-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above

NZ$1.1073 to target 2017 highs (NZ$1.1290).

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Lacks Follow Through Below 100-WMA

*RES 4: Y86.56 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Y86.11 - Hourly resistance Feb 7 

*RES 2: Y85.59 - High Feb 13 

*RES 1: Y84.89 - Hourly resistance Feb 14

*PRICE: Y84.84 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y84.41 - Hourly support Feb 14

*SUP 2: Y83.95 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support

*SUP 3: Y83.62 - 100-WMA

*SUP 4: Y83.32 - 2018 Low Feb 14

*COMMENTARY: The sharp sell-off resulted in dip below the 100-WMA before and

aggressive reversal sees focus on the Y85.59-98 resistance region. Bulls still

need a close above Y85.98 to ease bearish pressure and above Y87.50 to confirm

breaks of DMAs & shift focus back to Y88.50-89.09 where the bear channel top is

situated. Daily studies are ideally placed for a fresh leg higher. Bears now

need a close below Y83.95 to focus on 2018 lows.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: O/B Studies Limit Topside Follow Through

*RES 4: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016

*RES 3: A$1.5843 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 2: A$1.5816 - 2018 High Feb 14

*RES 1: A$1.5760 - Hourly support Feb 14 now resistance

*PRICE: A$1.5715 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5680 - Hourly resistance Feb 13 now support 

*SUP 2: A$1.5601 - Low Feb 13 

*SUP 3: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2 

*SUP 4: A$1.5495 - Monthly High Jan 25

*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through has defined Feb so far with fresh

2018 & 2yr highs Wednesday suffering the same fate. Daily studies at O/B levels

and the weekly Bollinger top remain concerns for bulls. Bears now need a close

below A$1.5680 to gain breathing room and below A$1.5601 to shift initial focus

to A$1.5456-1.5546 where 21 (A$1.5491) & 55 (A$1.5456) are situated. Overall

below the 100-DMA (A$1.5354) targets 2018 lows (A$1.5152).

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Overall Focus On Weekly Bear Channel Base

*RES 4: 90.567 - High Feb 8 

*RES 3: 90.177 - High Feb 13 

*RES 2: 89.647 - Hourly support Feb 14 now resistance 

*RES 1: 89.429 - Hourly resistance Feb 14

*PRICE: 89.037 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 88.925 - Hourly resistance Feb 1 now support

*SUP 2: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 3: 87.627 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*SUP 4: 87.202 - Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The index remains heavy having failed to break above last week's

highs with immediate focus now back on 2018 lows and then the weekly bear

channel base (87.202). Daily studies are well placed for further losses. Bulls

now need a close above 89.647 to gain breathing room and above 90.567 to hint at

a move to 91.526-751.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Focused On Bear Channel Top

*RES 4: $1.2536 2018 High Jan 25

*RES 3: $1.2522 High Feb 1

*RES 2: $1.2518 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: $1.2498 Hourly resistance Feb 2

*PRICE: $1.2435 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2384 Hourly support Feb 14 

*SUP 2: $1.2330 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2277 Low Feb 14 

*SUP 4: $1.2267 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Having closed above the 21-DMA ($1.2240) Tuesday gains Wednesday

now sees immediate focus back ton the $1.2522-1.2665 region where the weekly

bear channel top and 2018 highs are situated. Daily studies are ideally placed

for a fresh leg higher. Layers of support have been left in the wake with bears

now needing a close below $1.2384 to ease bullish pressure and below $1.2163 to

initially pressure $1.2017-92.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Break Of Y107.31 Opens Up For 2016 Low Test

*RES 4: Y108.94 High Feb 12 

*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y107.54 Hourly resistance Feb 14

*PRICE: Y107.06 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.70 2018 Low Feb 14 

*SUP 2: Y106.18 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 3: Y105.89 High Nov 9 2016 now support 

*SUP 4: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018/15mth lows leave the pair offered and open up for Y99.08

2016 lows. Immediate bearish focus is now on the Y105.89 support with a close

below needed to add weight to the bearish case. The Y108.03 resistance is now

key with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room. Overall bulls need

a close above Y109.79 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA (Y109.38) and bear channel

top (Y109.09) and above Y110.47 to shift focus higher.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Downside Follow Through Remains Lacking

*RES 4: Y134.48 55-DMA

*RES 3: Y134.16 High Feb 9

*RES 2: Y133.78 High Feb 13

*RES 1: Y133.43 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance

*PRICE: Y133.20 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.43 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 2: Y131.59 2018 Low Feb 14 

*SUP 3: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20 

*SUP 4: Y130.92 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: 2018/3mth lows lack follow through which is a concern when combined

with daily studies at O/S and the Bollinger base (Y132.63). Layers of resistance

remain with bulls now needing a close above the 55-DMA to hint at a shift higher

in focus and above Y135.95 to initially target 2018 highs (Y137.50). Bears now

need a close below Y132.43 to gain breathing room. Overall a close below Y131.15

hints at a move back to Y125.80-127.54 with below Y130.59 to confirm.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1374.9 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 3: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 2: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1357.0 - High Jan 26

*PRICE: $1354.7 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1345.5 - Hourly support Feb 14 

*SUP 2: $1336.8 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 3: $1335.5 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1319.4 - Low Feb 14

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's dip back towards the 55-DMA saw an

aggressive break of the 21-DMA with focus now back on layers of resistance

$1357.0-1374.9. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1374.9 to confirm

focus on $1391.8-1433.3. Daily studies are well placed for gains. Bears now need

a close below $1345.5 to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA to shift focus

back to $1302.5-1305.6.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Above $61.07 Confirms 55-DMA Break 

*RES 4: $63.20 - 21-DMA 

*RES 3: $62.63 - Low Jan 19 now resistance 

*RES 2: $61.82 - High Feb 8 

*RES 1: $61.07 - Low Feb 7 now resistance

*PRICE: $60.68 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $59.70 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 2: $58.75 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 a now support 

*SUP 3: $57.88 - Low Feb 9 

SUP 4: $57.69 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies correcting from very O/S levels are well placed for

gains following the bounce from ahead of the 100-DMA. The contract is flirting

with the 55-DMA ($60.71) with bulls now looking for a close above $61.07 to

confirm a break. Overall bulls look for a close above $63.94 to initially target

2018 highs. Bears now look for a close below $59.70 to gain breathing room and

below the 100-DMA to target the 200-DMA ($53.20).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]