MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

12 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Closes Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.8043 - High Feb 2

*RES 3: $0.7989 - High Feb 16

*RES 2: $0.7910 - Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 1: $0.7881 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7850 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7838 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7770 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7753 - Hourly support Mar 5 

*SUP 4: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: The 100-DMA largely supported last week with the close above the

21-DMA Friday ensuring focus remains on the $0.7881-0.7910 resistance to start

the new week. Bulls need a close above $0.7910 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA

and above $0.7989 to shift overall focus to $0.8135-62 where 2015 & 2018 highs

are situated. Bears now look for a close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room

and below the 100-DMA to return pressure to $0.7694-0.7710.

     KIWI TECHS: $0.7243 & $0.7318 Levels Key This Week

*RES 4: $0.7415 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7385 - High Feb 21 

*RES 2: $0.7345 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $0.7318 - Hourly resistance Feb 26

*PRICE: $0.7291 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7243 - Low Mar 8

*SUP 2: $0.7179 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: $0.7130 - High Jan 2 now support

*SUP 4: $0.7100 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA is proving something of a stumbling block with the

failure to gain traction above a concern for bulls. The $0.7243 support is key

today with bears needing a close below to shift initial focus back to the

200-DMA. Bears need a close below the 200-DMA to hint at a move back to Dec lows

with below $0.7042 needed to confirm. Bulls still need a close above $0.7318 to

confirm focus on 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Above NZ$1.0776 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: NZ$1.0862 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0856 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0832 - 55-WMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0776 - High Mar 1

*PRICE: NZ$1.0765 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0650 - 2018 Low Feb 22

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0458 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure in past weeks ahead of the 55-WMA and key DMAs

resulted in an aggressive sell-off and focus back on 2018 lows. Bears look for a

close below NZ$1.0650 to add weight to the case for a test of NZ$1.0458-91 where

the LT rising TL off 2015 lows is noted. Bulls still need a close above

NZ$1.0776 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA to hint at a move

targeting NZ$1.1072-1.1139.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below Y83.32

*RES 4: Y86.11 - Hourly resistance Feb 7 

*RES 3: Y85.59 - High Feb 13 

*RES 2: Y84.89 - High Feb 14 

*RES 1: Y84.23 - Low Feb 20 now resistance

*PRICE: Y83.85 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y83.32 - High Mar 6

*SUP 2: Y82.50 - Low Mar 8

*SUP 3: Y82.03 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 4: Y81.47 - 2017 Low May 19, 2018 Low Mar 5

*COMMENTARY: 2018 & 8mth lows lacked follow through last week leaving a double

daily bottom in place with the Bollinger base and correcting O/S daily studies

key concerns. Bulls take comfort in Friday's rally and close above resistance

levels that sees focus now on the close above Y84.20 needed to shift focus back

to Y85.59. Bears now need a close below Y83.32 to ease renewed bullish pressure.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Immediate Focus On A$1.5598

*RES 4: A$1.5853 - Hourly resistance Mar 8

*RES 3: A$1.5824 - High Mar 9

*RES 2: A$1.5778 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 1: A$1.5736 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: A$1.5683 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5598 - Low Feb 20 

*SUP 2: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2 

*SUP 3: A$1.5531 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: A$1.5501 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 Low

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through has again taken its toll with a

sell-off and close below the 21-DMA that sees focus return to A$1.5478-1.5598

where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base off 2018 lows are situated. Below

the 100-DMA hints at a move back to A$1.5152-1.5256. Layers of resistance are

accumulating and weighing with bulls needing a close above A$1.5824 to shift

focus back to 2018 highs (A$1.5976).

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 91.011 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 90.511 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1

*PRICE: 90.093 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 89.998 - Low Mar 9

*SUP 2: 89.859 - Hourly resistance Mar 8 now support

*SUP 3: 89.407 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 4: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain traction on the break below 89.442 resulted in

rally that sees focus back on 90.511-91.011 where the 55-DMA is located. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 91.011 to shift initial focus to 91.751.

Initial support is now noted at 89.998 Friday's low but bears still need a close

below 89.407 to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to 88.253 2018 lows.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2364-1.2446 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 3: $1.2446 High Mar 8

*RES 2: $1.2364 Alternating support/resistance

*RES 1: $1.2336 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.2316 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2246 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.2223 Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: The pair stalled on approach to the weekly bear channel top

($1.2639) off 2008 highs. The closes below the 21-DMA see focus return to the

$1.2092-1.2153 support region. Resistance layers left in the wake add to bearish

confidence. Bulls need a close above $1.2364 to gain breathing room and above

$1.2446 to reconfirm focus on $1.2555-1.2640 where 2018 highs and the LT bear

channel top are situated.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y107.19 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: Y109.78 High Feb 8 

*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y107.19 High Mar 1

*PRICE: Y106.60 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.56 Hourly support Mar 12 

*SUP 2: Y105.79 Hourly support Mar 7 

*SUP 3: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 4: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation and a lack of follow through on recent 2018 lows is less

than ideal for bears who are currently focused on Y98.95-101.15. In saying that,

resistance layers remain with bulls needing a close above Y107.19 to ease

bearish pressure. Above Y108.03 is needed to hint at a correction to

Y109.79-110.47 with above Y108.42 to confirm. Bears continue to look for a close

below Y105.22 to add weight to their case for a test of Y98.95-101.15.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Capping

*RES 4: Y133.41 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 2: Y132.18 High Feb 27

*RES 1: Y131.71 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.30 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.19 Hourly support Mar 9 

*SUP 2: Y130.49 Low Mar 8 

*SUP 3: Y129.53 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5

*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction above the 200-DMA and the 21-DMA

capping resulted in a sell-off and sees immediate focus on Y129.33-53 where 2018

lows and the 200-WMA are noted. Bears now look for a close below Y129.33 to

initially pressure the 55-WMA and reconfirm overall focus on Y125.80-127.54.

Bulls still need a close above Y132.18 to ease bearish pressure and shift

initial focus to Y133.05-134.16 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: 21-DMA Now Capping, Bounces From Key Support

*RES 4: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 3: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $1328.9 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1323.6 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1319.5 - Hourly support Mar 9 

*SUP 2: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 3: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 4: $1302.0 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the bounce from $1312.9 that sees pressure

back on the 21-DMA. Bulls now look for a close above the 21-DMA to gain

breathing room whereas a close above $1351.3 remains needed to initially focus

on $1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs are noted. Bears look for a close below

$1312.9 to confirm a return in focus to $1288.7-1302.5 where 100 & 200-DMAs are

situated. Daily studies are well placed for gains.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) 100-DMA Support Key 

*RES 4: $64.96 - High Feb 5 

*RES 3: $64.24 - High Feb 26 

*RES 2: $63.58 - Hourly resistance Feb 27 

*RES 1: $62.78 - Hourly resistance Mar 6

*PRICE: $62.04 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $61.65 - Hourly support Mar 9 

*SUP 2: $61.44 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $60.90 - Hourly resistance Mar 9 now support 

*SUP 4: $60.47 - Hourly resistance Mar 9a now support

*COMMENTARY: Despite looking heavy last week the $59.32-95 support region where

the 100-DMA ($59.32) and bull channel base are located confirmed significance

with a rally and bullish close Friday that provides bulls breathing room and

hints at a test of $64.24-97 this week. Overall a close above $64.97 remains

needed to return focus to $66.39-65. Bears continue to look for a close below

the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to $53.30-55.37 with below $57.90 to confirm.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]