MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

19 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Below $0.7694 To Target Dec Low

*RES 4: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 3: $0.7803 - 200-DMA, Hourly resistance Mar 16a

*RES 2: $0.7775 - 100-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7736 - Hourly resistance Mar 16

*PRICE: $0.7715 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7707 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7625 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Immediate pressure has returned to 2018 lows following the

aggressive break of the 100-DMA and bearish close. Bears focus on the close

below $0.7694 to confirm focus on $0.7500 Dec lows. The Bollinger base is the

key concern for bears. Bulls now look for a close above the 200-DMA to ease

bearish pressure and above $0.7935 to confirm a break of the TL off 2018 highs

($0.7899), hinting at a move back to $0.8135-62 and above $0.7989 to confirm.

     KIWI TECHS: Focus Returns To $0.7174-82

*RES 4: $0.7337 - Hourly resistance Mar 14 

*RES 3: $0.7303 - Hourly support Mar 15 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7280 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $0.7243 - Low Mar 8 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7212 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7192 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: $0.7182 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: $0.7174 - Monthly Low Feb 8

*SUP 4: $0.7120 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains heavy following the aggressive break of the 55-DMA

Friday that sees immediate focus on $0.7174-82 this week where the 200-DMA and

Feb low are located. Bears need a close below $0.7174 to hint at a move back to

Dec lows with a close below the 100-DMA to confirm breaks of key WMAs and add

weight to the case for a move targeting Nov lows ($0.6779). Bulls now need a

close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Focus Returns To NZ$1.0588-1.0650

*RES 4: NZ$1.0861 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0833 - 55-WMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0802 - High Mar 12, Bollinger band top

*RES 1: NZ$1.0700 - Low Mar 9 now resistance

*PRICE: NZ$1.0687 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0700 - Low Mar 9

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0650 - 2018 Low Feb 22

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading continues as Bolli bands narrow increasing the

likelihood of a breakout in the near future. The below NZ$1.0700 returns focus

to NZ$1.0588-1.0650 where 2018 lows and the bear channel base are situated.

Bulls still need a close above NZ$1.0894 to confirm breaks of 55 & 200-DMAs and

hint at a move to NZ$1.1006-73 where 2018 highs are noted although the 100-DMA

(NZ$1.0918) and bear channel top (NZ$1.0961) may slow the move.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Initial Focus Back On 2018 Low

*RES 4: Y83.97 - Hourly support Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y83.22 - Hourly support Mar 15 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y82.70 - Low Mar 15 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y82.29 - Hourly support Mar 16 now resistance

*PRICE: Y81.76 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y81.47 - 2017 Low May 19, 2018 Low Mar 5

*SUP 2: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*SUP 3: Y76.78 - Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*SUP 4: Y75.95 - Monthly Low Sept 15 2016

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through last week took its toll with a

sharp sell-off that sees immediate focus back on tests of the 2018 low and

double daily bottom at Y81.47. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg

lower. Bears look for a close below Y81.47 to shift focus to Y75.95-76.78 where

Sept & Nov 2016 monthly lows are located. Bulls now need a close above Y82.70 to

gain breathing room.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Above 2018 To Target A$1.6250

*RES 4: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11

*RES 3: A$1.6036 - Daily Bull channel top

*RES 2: A$1.5976 - 2018 High Mar 5

*RES 1: A$1.5941 - High Mar 8, Bollinger band top

*PRICE: A$1.5927 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5828 - Hourly resistance Mar 16 now support 

*SUP 2: A$1.5795 - High Mar 15 now support 

*SUP 3: A$1.5688 - Low Mar 15 

*SUP 4: A$1.5619 - Low Mar 12

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading ended with an aggressive break that returns

immediate focus to 2018 highs. The Bollinger top is the key concern for bears

with other studies well placed for gains. Bulls now need a close above A$1.5976

to shift focus to tests of 2016 highs. The A$1.5795 support is now key. Bears

look for a close below this level to ease bullish pressure and shift initial

focus back to A$1.5598-1.5619 and overall focus to A$1.5495-1.5598.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 89.407 & 90.420 Levels Key

*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 90.629 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1

*PRICE: 90.233 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 89.898 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 89.561 - Low Mar 14

*SUP 3: 89.407 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 4: 89.167 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to 90.420 following the failure to take out

the 89.407 support. The 90.420 resistance remains key with bulls needing a close

above to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (90.222) and shift initial focus to

91.011. A close above 91.011 is needed to target 91.751. Bears still need a

close below 89.407 to confirm traction below the 21-DMA, ending bullish hopes

and shifting focus back to 88.253 2018 lows.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.2241

*RES 4: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 3: $1.2446 High Mar 8

*RES 2: $1.2414 High Mar 14

*RES 1: $1.2348 Hourly resistance Mar 15

*PRICE: $1.2291 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2241 High Feb 28 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2210 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to challenge the key $1.2446 resistance with the break

back below $1.2340 seeing a dip below the 55-DMA ($1.2282). Bears now look for a

close below $1.2241 to target the key $1.2092-1.2153 support region. Daily

studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower although the Bollinger base may

limit follow through. Bulls need a close above $1.2348 to gain breathing room

and above $1.2446 to target $1.2555-1.2639.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Below Y105.22 Targets Y99.08-101.15

*RES 4: Y107.53 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 2: Y106.75 High Mar 14 

*RES 1: Y106.40 Hourly resistance Mar 14

*PRICE: Y105.88 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 2: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 3: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016 

*SUP 4: Y99.08 2016 Low June 2016

*COMMENTARY: The break of Y105.79 left the pair looking heavy with bears focused

on the break of 2018 lows needed to add weight to the case for a test of the

Y99.08-101.15 support region. Layers of resistance building add to bearish

confidence. Bulls need a close above Y106.75 to gain breathing room and above

Y107.29 to shift initial focus to Y108.03-92 where the 55-DMA (Y108.68) is

located. While Y106.75 caps immediate focus remains on 2018 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.01 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: Y131.73 200-DMA

*RES 3: Y131.29 Hourly resistance Mar 15a

*RES 2: Y131.01 Low Mar 14 now resistance

*RES 1: Y130.43 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PRICE: Y130.11 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.79 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: Y129.52 200-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5 

*SUP 4: Y129.06 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains heavy having broken Y130.43 with immediate focus

on Y129.06-52 where 2018 lows, the 200-WMA & 55-WMA are noted. Bulls now need a

close above Y131.03 to gain breathing room. Y132.44-134.16 where 55 & 100-DMAs

are situated remains key with bulls needing a close above to target 2018 highs.

The Bollinger base is the key concern for bears with potential to limit follow

through as daily studies are well placed for losses.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Below 200-DMA To Target $1235.9

*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 2: $1330.0 - High Mar 14 

*RES 1: $1321.7 - High Mar 16

*PRICE: $1313.0 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1309.3 - Low Mar 16 

*SUP 2: $1304.2 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 4: $1289.6 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite pressuring the 21-DMA ($1325.8) bulls failed to gain

traction above Friday's losses seeing focus back on $1302.5-1304.2. The

Bollinger base ($1308.1) is the key concern for bears and limits follow through.

Narrowing Bollinger bands hint at a breakout. Bears look for a close below

$1302.5 to hint at a move back to $1235.9 and below the 200-DMA to confirm.

Above $1330.2 is needed to ease bearish pressure.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Above $64.07 To Target 2018 High 

*RES 4: $64.07 - High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $63.57 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $63.05 - High Mar 6 

*RES 1: $62.56 - Falling daily TL off Feb 2 high

*PRICE: $62.41 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $62.13 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $61.60 - High Mar 15 now support 

*SUP 3: $60.86 - Low Mar 15 

*SUP 4: $60.18 - Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the key $59.18-91 support

region provided the impetus for a close above 21 & 55-DMAs Friday with focus on

$63.05-64.07. Bulls need a close above $64.07 to return focus to 2018 highs with

the Bollinger band top their key concern. Bears now need a close below $61.60 to

ease bullish pressure and below $59.18 to hint at a move back to $54.10-55.90

with below $57.60 to confirm.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]