MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

29 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Focused On $0.7500-80

*RES 4: $0.7808 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*RES 2: $0.7718 - Hourly resistance Mar 27

*RES 1: $0.7688 - Hourly resistance Mar 28

*PRICE: $0.7662 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7651 - 2018 Low Mar 28 

*SUP 2: $0.7635 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7627 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.7784-0.7808 where key DMAs are situated

continues to hamper recovery efforts and resulting in fresh 2018 lows. Bulls now

need a close above $0.7717 to gain breathing room and above the 200-DMA to

pressure $0.7842-0.7916 where the falling TL off 2018 highs and 55-DMA are

located. While the 200-DMA caps bears remain focused on $0.7500-80 with fresh

2018 lows adding weight to their case.

     KIWI TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of Key Resistance

*RES 4: $0.7315 - Low Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7301 - Falling daily TL off Feb high 

*RES 2: $0.7274 - High Mar 28 

*RES 1: $0.7254 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7210 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7200 - Low Mar 23

*SUP 2: $0.7151 - Low Mar 21

*SUP 3: $0.7143 - 55-WMA, 100-DMA

*SUP 4: $0.7137 - 21-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures ahead of the falling daily TL off Feb highs has

resulted in a sharp sell-off and bearish focus having returned to layers of

support $0.7137-00 where key DMA and WMAs are situated. Bears need a close below

the 21-WMA to shift initial focus to the $0.6952-0.7042 support region. Bulls

now need a close above Wednesday's high to gain breathing room and above $0.7315

to hint at a move back to 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Above NZ$1.0652 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: NZ$1.0791 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0762 - High Mar 22

*RES 2: NZ$1.0690 - High Mar 23

*RES 1: NZ$1.0652 - Low Mar 22 now resistance

*PRICE: NZ$1.0627 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0559 - 2018 Low Mar 28

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0464 - LT rising daily TL off 2015 Low

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0394 - Monthly Low July 7 2017

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 9mth lows lacked follow through with the bounce seeing

initial focus back on NZ$1.0652. Bulls now need a close above NZ$1.0652 to ease

bearish pressure and above the 55-WMA (NZ$1.0825) to target NZ$1.1073 2018

highs. While NZ$1.0652 caps immediate bearish focus remains on the LT rising

daily TL off 2015 lows coming in around NZ$1.0464 today.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y82.70

*RES 4: Y83.97 - Hourly support Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y83.49 - Low Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y82.70 - Low Mar 15 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y82.22 - Hourly support Mar 22 now resistance

*PRICE: Y81.87 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y81.11 - Hourly support Mar 28

*SUP 2: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23

*SUP 3: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*SUP 4: Y76.78 - Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth lows were seen Friday with Bulls failing to

trouble Y82.70 so far. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y82.70 to hint

at a move back to Y84.51-89 with above Y83.49 to confirm. Daily studies are now

correcting from O/S levels. While Y82.70 caps bears focus on the break of Y80.24

needed to target Y75.95-76.78. The Bollinger base (Y80.50) remains the key

concern for bears.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of Bull Channel Top

*RES 4: A$1.6323 - 2015 High Aug 24

*RES 3: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11

*RES 2: A$1.6228 - Daily Bull channel top

*RES 1: A$1.6191 - 2018 High Mar 28

*PRICE: A$1.6063 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.6046 - Low Mar 28 

*SUP 2: A$1.5940 - Low Mar 23 

*SUP 3: A$1.5905 - Hourly support Mar 22 

*SUP 4: A$1.5875 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 2+yr highs continue with O/B studies and the Bollinger

band top (A$1.6143) key concerns for bulls with follow through currently

lacking. This increases the risk of a correction back to A$1.5940 with a close

below needed to shift focus back to A$1.5795-1.5875 where the 21-DMA is

situated. Bulls currently focus on A$1.6228-1.6323 where 2016 & 2015 highs are

located although O/B daily studies are an issue.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Pendulum Continues To Swing

*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 90.445 - High Mar 20 

*RES 1: 90.260 - Hourly resistance Mar 21

*PRICE: 90.081 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 90.011 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 2: 89.869 - Hourly resistance Mar 28 now support

*SUP 3: 89.714 - Hourly support Mar 28

*SUP 4: 89.534 - Hourly resistance Mar 28a now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of 88.960 has seen the

pendulum swing back the other way and focus having returned to 90.445. Bulls

need a close above this level to confirm a shift in focus to 91.011-751 where

the 100-DMA is located. Layers of support are again following the index higher

with bears now needing a close below 89.714 to ease renewed bullish pressure.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Initial Focus On $1.2199-1.2240

*RES 4: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 3: $1.2477 High Mar 27

*RES 2: $1.2433 Hourly support Mar 26 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2371 Low Mar 27 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2299 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2285 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 2: $1.2240 Low Mar 20 

*SUP 3: $1.2199 Daily Bull channel base off Nov Low 

*SUP 4: $1.2153 Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: Failure to capitalise on Monday's gains was a concern for bulls and

leaves the pair looking offered with immediate focus back on $1.2199-1.2240

where the bull channel base is noted. Layers of resistance accumulating add

weight to the bearish case. Bulls need a close above $1.2433 to gain breathing

room and above $1.2477 to retain focus on $1.2555-1.2625 where the LT bear

channel top off 2008 highs is located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.82 55-DMA 

*RES 2: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 1: Y107.16 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y106.97 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.75 High Mar 14 now support 

*SUP 2: Y106.09 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 4: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the LT rising TL off 2016 lows received a boost

with an aggressive rally that sees immediate focus on the Y107.29-108.03

resistance region. Bulls need a close above Y108.03 to end bearish hopes and

shift focus to Y109.51-110.82 where key WMA and DMAs are situated. Initial

support is now noted at Y106.75 but bears look for a close below the 21-DMA to

ease renewed bullish pressure and below Y105.29 to pressure 2018 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 200-DMA Confirms Significance

*RES 4: Y133.18 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y132.91 55-DMA

*RES 2: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 1: Y131.97 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.48 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.56 Low Mar 27 

*SUP 2: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 3: Y129.44 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y129.21 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite flirting with key WMAs bears failed to gain traction below

the 55 (Y129.21) & 200 (Y129.44) WMAs with the bounce to start the new week

seeing focus back on the Y131.97-133.18 region where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are

noted. Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to shift focus to Y132.44-133.18.

Daily studies correcting from O/S are perfectly placed for a leg higher. Bears

now look for a close below Y129.97 to return pressure to Y128.94-129.44.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Below $1318.3 To Pressure 100 & 200-DMAs

*RES 4: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 3: $1356.7 - High Mar 27 

*RES 2: $1347.0 - High Mar 28 

*RES 1: $1339.8 - Low Mar 27 now resistance

*PRICE: $1325.3 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 2: $1314.5 - Rising daily TL off Dec Low 

*SUP 3: $1308.8 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from ahead of the 100-DMA is now over with immediate

focus back on the $1318.3 support. Bears need a close below this level to shift

focus back to $1292.65-1308.8 where 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Layers of

resistance accumulating are seen weighing. Bulls now need a close above $1339.8

to gain breathing room and above $1347.0 to return pressure to $1361.7-1374.9.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Recovering Lost Ground 

*RES 4: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 (Cont) 

*RES 3: $66.55 - High Mar 26 

*RES 2: $65.67 - Hourly resistance Mar 27 

*RES 1: $65.11 - Hourly support Mar 27 now resistance

*PRICE: $64.65 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $63.72 - Low Mar 28 

*SUP 2: $63.31 - Hourly support Mar 20 

*SUP 3: $62.59 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $62.52 - Hourly support Mar 20a

*COMMENTARY: The rejections ahead of 2018 highs are less than ideal for bulls

when combined with daily studies at O/B levels and looking to correct as well as

the Bollinger top ($66.16) limiting follow through. The break of $63.99 has

lacked follow through with bulls now looking for a close above $65.67 to return

focus to the $66.55-66 region and above $66.66 to target $69.54-73.25 last seen

in early 2014.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]