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MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis 

1 May 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7648
*RES 4: $0.7702 - Hourly resistance Apr 20
*RES 3: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23
*RES 2: $0.7620 - High Apr 24
*RES 1: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25
*PRICE: $0.7530 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7522 - 2018 Low Apr 30 
*SUP 2: $0.7498 - Monthly Low Dec 8 2017 
*SUP 3: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017 
*SUP 4: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017
*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus remains on $0.7498 Dec lows. O/S daily studies and
the Bolli base ($0.7505) are concerns. Bears look for a close below $0.7498 to
confirm traction below the LT bull channel base and initially target $0.7326 May
2017 lows. Layers of resistance accumulating add weight to the bearish case with
bulls needing a close above $0.7648 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7735
to shift focus back to $0.7803-42 where the 200-DMA is noted.
     KIWI TECHS: Immediate Focus On $0.6952
*RES 4: $0.7172 - 200-DMA 
*RES 3: $0.7157 - High Apr 24 
*RES 2: $0.7132 - Hourly resistance Apr 24 
*RES 1: $0.7102 - Hourly support Apr 25 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7082 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7031 - 2018 Low Apr 30
*SUP 2: $0.6952 - Low Dec 20
*SUP 3: $0.6899 - Low Dec 12
*SUP 4: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1
*COMMENTARY: Immediate bearish focus remains on the $0.6952 support from Dec 20.
The Bollinger base ($0.6995) and O/S studies remain the key issues for bears.
Bears look for a close below $0.6952 to initially target $0.6779 Nov lows.
Layers of resistance remain with bulls now needing a close above $0.7102 to gain
breathing room and above $0.7198 to initially target a correction back to
$0.7258-0.7302.
     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA
*RES 4: NZ$1.0826 - High Feb 28
*RES 3: NZ$1.0803 - 55-WMA
*RES 2: NZ$1.0781 - 21-WMA
*RES 1: NZ$1.0762 - High Mar 22
*PRICE: NZ$1.0698 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0666 - 55-DMA
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0601 - High Apr 17 now support
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0549 - Low Apr 16
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0486 - 2018 Low Apr 12
*COMMENTARY: The bounce from recent 2018 & 9mth lows confirmed the significance
of the LT rising daily TL (NZ$1.0478) off 2015 lows with the close above the
55-DMA shifting focus to NZ$1.0781-1.0894 where key DMAs, WMAs and the bear
channel top are situated. Bears need a close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing
room and below NZ$1.0601 to shift focus back to NZ$1.0453-86 where bull and bear
channel bases & 2018 lows are noted.
     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Below Y81.90 To Target 2018 Low
*RES 4: Y83.59 - Hourly support Apr 18 now resistance 
*RES 3: Y83.15 - High Apr 20 
*RES 2: Y82.78 - 55-DMA 
*RES 1: Y82.37 - Low Apr 27 now resistance
*PRICE: Y82.26 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y82.01 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 2: Y81.87 - Low Apr 6
*SUP 3: Y81.26 - Low Apr 4
*SUP 4: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28
*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA capped last week and pressure on Y82.37 has resulted in
a close below Monday and bears now looking for a close below Y81.90 to shift
focus back to 2018 lows. Bulls now need a close above the 55-DMA to ease bearish
pressure and shift focus back to Y83.94-84.06. Daily studies lingering at
modestly O/S levels are seen as the key concern for bears.
     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Below A$1.5961 To Shift Focus To A$1.5771-1.5889
*RES 4: A$1.6191 - 2018 High Mar 28
*RES 3: A$1.6140 - High Apr 25
*RES 2: A$1.6099 - Bollinger band top
*RES 1: A$1.6056 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance, High Apr 30
*PRICE: A$1.6000 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.5974 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: A$1.5961 - Low Apr 20 
*SUP 3: A$1.5929 - Hourly resistance Apr 19 now support 
*SUP 4: A$1.5889 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the Bollinger band top saw pressure back on
A$1.5961 to start the new week. Bears continue to look for a close below
A$1.5961 to shift focus back to A$1.5771-1.5889 where the bull channel base and
55-DMA are situated. Bulls still need a close above A$1.6056 to gain breathing
room and above A$1.6191 to target A$1.6250 2016 highs.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 200-DMA Capping
*RES 4: 92.640 - 2018 High Jan 9 
*RES 3: 91.988 - 200-DMA 
*RES 2: 91.954 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 1: 91.933 - Weekly Bear channel top off 2017 high
*PRICE: 91.836 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26
*SUP 2: 91.320 - Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support
*SUP 3: 90.935 - Hourly support Apr 25
*SUP 4: 90.643 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The index is now hesitating ahead of the 200-DMA. Bulls still need
a close above the 200-DMA to target 92.625-997 where 2018 highs are situated.
Layers of support added to bullish confidence but very O/B daily studies are now
a concern. In saying that, bears now need a close below 91.320 to gain breathing
room and below 90.935 to shift focus initial focus back to 90.483-643 where the
100-DMA is noted.
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.2144
*RES 4: $1.2312 Hourly support Apr 20 now resistance
*RES 3: $1.2248 Low Apr 20 now resistance
*RES 2: $1.2225 100-DMA
*RES 1: $1.2144 Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.2079 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 
*SUP 2: $1.2021 Daily Bear channel base 
*SUP 3: $1.2013 200-DMA 
*SUP 4: $1.1914 2018 Low Jan 19
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of the $1.2092 weekly
support resulted in a bounce back towards initial resistance Friday. O/S daily
studies are seen as a key concern for bears. Bulls continue to look for a close
above $1.2144 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA ($1.2307) to shift
focus back to $1.2389-1.2476 where the bear channel top is noted. While $1.2144
caps bears look for a close below the 200-DMA initially target $1.1914.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y108.54-97 Support Region Key Today
*RES 4: Y110.46 Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 3: Y110.23 200-DMA 
*RES 2: Y109.79 High Feb 8
*RES 1: Y109.48 100-WMA
*PRICE: Y109.29 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.97 Hourly support Apr 25 
*SUP 2: Y108.54 Hourly support Apr 23 
*SUP 3: Y108.27 Hourly resistance Apr 23 now support 
*SUP 4: Y107.85 High Apr 20 now support
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around WMAs & DMAs Y109.48-110.47 is a concern for bulls
with the lack of follow through beginning to weigh. Bears continue to look for a
close below Y108.54 to shift focus back to Y106.57-107.85 where the 21 (Y107.77)
& 55 (Y106.88) DMAs are situated. The Bollinger top (Y109.76) remains a key
concern for bulls. In saying that, bulls need a close above the 100-WMA to gain
breathing room this week.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below 55-DMA
*RES 4: Y134.16 High Feb 9
*RES 3: Y133.48 High Apr 24
*RES 2: Y133.34 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: Y132.54 High Apr 30
*PRICE: Y132.04 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y131.85 Low Apr 30 
*SUP 2: Y131.78 Low Apr 12 
*SUP 3: Y131.55 55-DMA 
*SUP 4: Y131.05 Low Apr 5
*COMMENTARY: Follow through above the 100-DMA (Y132.99) & 21-WMA (Y132.85)
remains lacking with focus back on Y131.55-78 as daily studies correct from O/B.
Bears need a close below Y131.05 to confirm traction below the 55-DMA and to
shift focus to Y128.94-130.43 where 55 (Y130.43) & 200 (Y129.27) WMAs are noted.
Bulls continue to look for a close above Y134.16 to confirm focus on 2018 highs
although the Bollinger top (Y133.34) may limit follow through.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1302.5 Support Key This Week
*RES 4: $1339.3 - Hourly resistance Apr 20 
*RES 3: $1335.0 - 21-DMA 
*RES 2: $1332.6 - High Apr 24 
*RES 1: $1326.6 - High Apr 16
*PRICE: $1314.9 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $1310.1 - Low Apr 30 
*SUP 2: $1306.9 - Low Mar 20 
*SUP 3: $1303.7 - 200-DMA 
*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Monthly Low Mar 1
*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the close below the 100-DMA Thursday
with focus on $1302.5-1306.9 where the 200-DMA & 2018 lows are noted. Bears need
a close below $1302.5 to hint at a move back to the 200-WMA ($1234.6) and Dec
low ($1235.9) with below the 55-WMA to confirm. Bulls need a close above $1326.7
to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA to shift initial focus back to
$1355.1-1366.1.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) $67.11 Support Key Today
*RES 4: $71.20 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 3: $70.66 - Bollinger band top 
*RES 2: $69.55 - 2018 High Apr 19 
*RES 1: $69.34 - High Apr 30
*PRICE: $68.51 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $67.11 - Low Apr 25 
*SUP 2: $66.54 - Low Apr 18 
*SUP 3: $66.28 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: $65.09 - Low Apr 11
*COMMENTARY: The rejections ahead of 2018 highs are a concern for bulls when
combined with daily studies correcting from O/B and the proximity of the
Bollinger top. Bears look for a close below $67.11 to gain breathing room and
hint at a correction back to $65.09-66.31 where the 21-DMA is found. Bulls need
a close above $69.55 to reconfirm focus on $71.20-73.25 where the MT bull
channel top is noted.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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