MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

16 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Immediate Focus Back On 2018 Low

*RES 4: $0.7554 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7519 - Low May 11 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7502 - Hourly resistance May 15

*RES 1: $0.7483 - Hourly support May 15 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7470 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7445 - Low May 15 

*SUP 2: $0.7436 - Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 3: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9 

*SUP 4: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 21-DMA resulted in an aggressive break of

the $0.7472-0.7519 support region that sees immediate focus back on tests of

2018 lows. A close below current 2018 lows would confirm focus on the $0.7326-68

region where May & June lows are noted. Daily studies are well placed for a

fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a close above $0.7519 to ease bearish pressure

and above $0.7589 to shift initial focus back to $0.7648.

     KIWI TECHS: Bears Remain Focused On Nov & Dec Lows

*RES 4: $0.7052 - High May 4 

*RES 3: $0.6996 - High May 9 

*RES 2: $0.6952 - Low May 11 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.6899 - Low May 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.6860 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1, Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: $0.6779 - Monthly Low Nov 17

*SUP 3: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016

*SUP 4: $0.6606 - Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The pair was rejected ahead of the key $0.6996 resistance to start

the new week leaving the pair looking heavy and immediate pressure on 2018 lows.

Fresh 2018 lows reconfirm focus on tests of Nov & Dec lows. Resistance layers

are again accumulating and adding to bearish confidence. Bulls now need a close

above $0.6952 to gain breathing room and above $0.6996 to shift initial focus to

$0.7052.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bulls Targeting 2018 High

*RES 4: NZ$1.1290 - 2017 High Oct 24

*RES 3: NZ$1.1139 - High Nov 14

*RES 2: NZ$1.1073 - 2018 High Jan 29

*RES 1: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*PRICE: NZ$1.0887 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0843 - High May 11 now support

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0805 - 55-WMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0765 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0762 - High Mar 22 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support continuing to emerge on dips back

towards the 55-DMA resulting in weekly closes above the 55 (NZ$1.0805) 21 &

200-WMAs. Monday's marginal close above the 200-DMA (NZ$1.0881) adds support to

the case for a test of 2018 highs. Bears need a close below NZ$1.0843 to gain

breathing room and below NZ$1.0762 to shift focus back to NZ$1.0655-1.0709 where

55 & 21-DMAs are noted.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y82.00 This Week

*RES 4: Y84.06 - High Apr 13 

*RES 3: Y83.94 - High Apr 19 

*RES 2: Y83.15 - High Apr 20 

*RES 1: Y82.78 - High May 14

*PRICE: Y82.45 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.19 - Low May 15

*SUP 2: Y82.00 - High May 9 now support

*SUP 3: Y81.13 - Low May 9

*SUP 4: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the close above Y82.00 buying breathing room

but now look for a close above Y82.78 to confirm breaks of 21 (Y82.43) & 55

(Y82.42) DMAs and confirm focus on Y83.94-84.06. The Y82.00 support is key this

week with bears needing a close below to reconfirm focus on Y80.51-81.13 where

2018 lows are situated with a close below Y80.24 needed to shift immediate focus

to Y76.78 Nov 2016 monthly lows.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.5967 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: A$1.6056 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*RES 3: A$1.5967 - High May 3

*RES 2: A$1.5939 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: A$1.5923 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: A$1.5842 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5771 - Monthly Low Apr 13 

*SUP 2: A$1.5713 - Weekly Bull channel base off 2017 Low 

*SUP 3: A$1.5688 - Low Mar 15 

*SUP 4: A$1.5598 - Monthly Low Feb 20

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off that has defined May so far sees the pair gaining

traction below the bull channel base off 2018 lows and focus on the

A$1.5619-1.5771 support region where the weekly bull channel base, 100-DMA and

21-WMA are noted. Daily studies now at O/S levels and looking to correct are a

concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above A$1.5967 to confirm breaks of 21

& 55-DMAs and to target A$1.6140-92.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Focused on 200-WMA

*RES 4: 94.720 - 200-WMA 

*RES 3: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 2: 94.073 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 93.457 - 2018 High May 15

*PRICE: 93.243 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 93.051 - Hourly support May 15

*SUP 2: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 92.551 - Hourly support May 14

*SUP 4: 92.223 - Low May 2

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 200-DMA has provided the

impetus for fresh 2018 highs with bulls now focused on 94.219-720 where the

200-WMA is noted. O/B studies remain a concern for bulls. Bears now need a close

below 92.841 to ease bullish pressure and below the 200-DMA to hint at a move

back to 90.549-617 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1889

*RES 4: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 2: $1.2019 200-DMA

*RES 1: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PRICE: $1.1836 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1815 Low Dec 22 

*SUP 2: $1.1716 Monthly Low Dec 12 

*SUP 3: $1.1710 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: The significance of the $1.2019-53 resistance region where the

200-DMA is noted was confirmed Monday with the pair remaining capped ahead of

this region. Pressure is now on 2018 lows with a close below initially targeting

$1.1690-1.1716 and overall focus on $1.1552 Now lows. Bulls now look for a close

above $1.1889 to gain breathing room and target a correction back to $1.2019-67

where 21 & 200-DMAs are noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Pressuring 55-WMA

*RES 4: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 2: Y111.22 High Jan 22 

*RES 1: Y110.46 55-WMA

*PRICE: Y110.32 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.17 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y110.02 High May 2 now support 

*SUP 3: Y109.64 Low May 15 

*SUP 4: Y109.13 Low May 11

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips has provided the impetus for a close above

the 200-DMA with the pair currently pressuring the 55-WMA. Bulls look for a

close above the 55-WMA to shift immediate focus to Y111.22-98 and overall focus

to the 200-WMA (Y112.97). The 200-DMA becomes initial support but bears now need

a close below Y110.02 to gain breathing room and below the 100-DMA (Y108.43) to

shift initial focus back to Y107.43-85 where the 55-DMA is noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Topside Failures A Concern

*RES 4: Y132.39 200-DMA

*RES 3: Y131.42 21-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.37 High May 14

*RES 1: Y131.26 55-DMA

*PRICE: Y130.61 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.91 Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 2: Y129.67 Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 3: Y129.19 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: Despite day studies correcting from O/S and adding support to the

case for a bigger correction, bears take comfort in the hesitation around the

55-DMA (Y131.26) to start the new week. The topside failure around the 55-DMA

now sees focus back on the break of Y129.91 needed to reconfirm immediate focus

on 2018 lows. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to add to confidence and

above the 100-DMA (Y132.63) to shift focus to Y133.48-134.10.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: $1317.4 - Low May 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1306.4 - 200-DMA 

*RES 1: $1301.5 - Low May 1 now resistance

*PRICE: $1310.0 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1288.3 - 2018 Low May 15 

*SUP 2: $1277.7 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1268.9 - High Dec 21 

*SUP 4: $1234.4 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The rejection around key DMAs Friday has now resulted in fresh 2018

lows and closes below the 55-WMA ($1297.7) and 200-DMA with bears initially

focused on $1268.9-1277.7 where the 100-WMA is situated. Daily studies are well

placed for a fresh leg lower. Layers of resistance have been left in the wake

with bulls now needing a close above the 200-DMA to gain breathing room.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below $70.26

*RES 4: $74.36 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance

*RES 2: $72.14 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $71.92 - 2018 High May 11

*PRICE: $71.00 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $70.26 - Low May 14 

*SUP 2: $69.51 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $69.12 - Hourly resistance May 8 now support 

*SUP 4: $69.01 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite looking offered Monday bears failed to capitalise on the

break of Friday's low with bulls taking comfort in the bounce that maintains

immediate pressure on the bull channel top and then the $73.25-74.36 region

above as fresh 2018 highs continue. Bears need a close below $70.26 to ease

bullish pressure and shift initial focus back to $66.85-67.63. O/B daily studies

looking to correct remain the key concern for bulls.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]