MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

21 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7547 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 3: $0.7589 - High Apr 26

*RES 2: $0.7547 - High May 17

*RES 1: $0.7526 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7517 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7486 - Low May 18 

*SUP 2: $0.7445 - Low May 15 

*SUP 3: $0.7436 - Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 4: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returned to the 21-DMA after bears failed to trouble 2018

lows last week. Bulls now need a close above $0.7547 to confirm a break of the

21-DMA easing bearish pressure and above $0.7589 to shift initial focus back to

$0.7648. Bears continue to look for a close below 2018 lows to confirm focus on

the $0.7326-68 region where May & June 17 lows are noted. Daily studies are well

placed for a fresh leg lower.

     KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.6952

*RES 4: $0.7052 - High May 4 

*RES 3: $0.6996 - High May 9 

*RES 2: $0.6952 - Low May 11 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.6936 - High May 17

*PRICE: $0.6914 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6849 - 2018 Low May 16

*SUP 2: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*SUP 3: $0.6779 - Monthly Low Nov 17

*SUP 4: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 lows lacked follow through Wednesday which is less than

ideal for bears given daily studies lingering at O/S levels. Bears currently

focus on tests of Nov & Dec lows. Resistance layers accumulating added to

bearish confidence. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.6952 to gain

breathing room and above $0.6996 to shift initial focus to $0.7052.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Closes Below 200-DMA

*RES 4: NZ$1.1073 - 2018 High Jan 29

*RES 3: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*RES 2: NZ$1.0939 - High May 17

*RES 1: NZ$1.0900 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*PRICE: NZ$1.0868 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0843 - High May 11 now support

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0808 - 55-WMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0760 - 21-DMA, 100-DMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0682 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls suffered a setback Friday with the sell off and close below

the 200-DMA (NZ$1.0883). Bears now look for a close below NZ$1.0843 to confirm

an easing of bullish pressure and see focus shift back to tests of the 100-DMA

(NZ$1.0760). Correcting O/B daily studies are currently weighing. Bulls now need

a close above NZ$1.0900 to gain breathing room and above NZ$1.0939 to reconfirm

focus on 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Overall Focus Back On Y83.79-84.51

*RES 4: Y84.21 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: Y84.06 - High Apr 13 

*RES 2: Y83.94 - High Apr 19 

*RES 1: Y83.87 - 100-WMA

*PRICE: Y83.39 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.58 - Hourly resistance May 16 now support

*SUP 2: Y82.16 - Low May 16

*SUP 3: Y82.00 - High May 9 now support

*SUP 4: Y81.13 - Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards Y82.00 provided the impetus

for a close above Y82.78 Wednesday, shifting overall focus to Y83.79-84.51 where

key DMA and WMAs are situated. Support layers building add to bullish

confidence. Bears now need a close below Y82.58 to gain breathing room and below

Y82.00 to confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs and reconfirm focus on Y80.51-81.13

where 2018 lows are situated.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: 100-DMA Now Capping

*RES 4: A$1.5910 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: A$1.5887 - High May 15

*RES 2: A$1.5771 - Monthly Low Apr 13 now resistance

*RES 1: A$1.5737 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: A$1.5650 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5598 - Monthly Low Feb 20 

*SUP 2: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2 

*SUP 3: A$1.5495 - High Jan 25 now support 

*SUP 4: A$1.5465 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off that has defined May so far has resulted in closes

below the 100-DMA with immediate pressure on A$1.5619. Overall bears need a

close below A$1.5919 to shift initial focus to A$1.5465-95 where the 200-DMA is

located. O/S studies are the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above

A$1.5771 to gain breathing room and above A$1.5967 to confirm breaks of 21 &

55-DMAs and to target A$1.6140-92.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Focused on 200-WMA

*RES 4: 94.785 - 200-WMA 

*RES 3: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 2: 94.163 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 93.830 - 2018 High May 18

*PRICE: 93.665 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 93.340 - Low May 18

*SUP 2: 93.051 - Hourly support May 15

*SUP 3: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 4: 92.551 - Hourly support May 14

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 200-DMA provided the

impetus for fresh 2018 highs with bulls now focused on 94.219-785 where the

200-WMA is noted. O/B studies remain a concern for bulls. Bears now need a close

below 93.340 to ease bullish pressure and below the 200-DMA (91.953) to hint at

a move back to 90.580-857 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Focused On $1.1552

*RES 4: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 3: $1.2019 200-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 1: $1.1838 High May 17

*PRICE: $1.1772 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1747 2018 Low May 18 

*SUP 2: $1.1716 Monthly Low Dec 12 

*SUP 3: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1685 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains offered with fresh 2018 lows seen Friday and bears

initially focused on $1.1690-1.1716 with overall focus on $1.1552 Now lows.

Daily studies lingering around modestly O/S levels is less than ideal for bears

with the Bollinger base also expected to limit follow through this week. Bulls

continue to look for a close above $1.1889 to gain breathing room and target a

correction back to $1.1961-1.2053 where 21 & 200-DMAs are noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Immediate Focus On Y111.22-98

*RES 4: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y111.96 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 1: Y111.22 High Jan 22

*PRICE: Y110.87 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.43 55-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y110.02 High May 2 now support 

*SUP 3: Y109.64 Low May 15 

*SUP 4: Y109.13 Low May 11

*COMMENTARY: Bullish confidence grows with closes above the 55-WMA adding

support to the case for a test of Y111.22-98. A close above Y111.98 is then

needed to target Y112.97-113.75 where the 200-WMA, Dec and 2018 highs are noted.

Bears still need a close below Y110.02 to gain breathing room and below the

100-DMA (Y108.37) to shift initial focus back to Y107.34-85 where the 55-DMA is

noted. The Bollinger top (Y110.89) remains the key concern for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.37 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Y132.14 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 high

*RES 3: Y131.37 High May 14

*RES 2: Y131.25 55-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.12 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.49 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.22 Low May 17 

*SUP 2: Y129.51 Low May 16 

*SUP 3: Y129.16 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the failure around 21 & 55-DMAs last week.

Y131.37 remains key resistance this week with bulls needing a close above to

confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs, easing bearish pressure, and above the 100-DMA

(Y132.49) to shift focus to Y133.48-134.10. While Y131.37 caps bears initially

focus on 2018 lows with a close below needed to target the daily bear channel

base around Y125.45 today.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Above 200-DMA To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1306.8 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: $1301.5 - Low May 1 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1296.9 - High May 16

*PRICE: $1291.5 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1285.4 - 2018 Low May 17 

*SUP 2: $1277.7 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1268.9 - High Dec 21 

*SUP 4: $1234.4 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 lows defined last week with closes below 55 & 200-WMAs

adding weight to the bearish case and immediate focus on $1268.9-1277.7 where

the 100-WMA is situated. Layers of resistance have been left in the wake with

bulls now needing a close above the $1301.5 to gain breathing room and above the

200-DMA to hint at a correction to $1324.4-1332.6.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below $70.26

*RES 4: $74.58 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 2: $72.40 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $72.30 - 2018 High May 17

*PRICE: $71.28 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $70.26 - Low May 14 

*SUP 2: $69.55 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $69.51 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 4: $69.12 - Hourly resistance May 8 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remained on the daily bull channel top last week with

bulls currently focused on the $73.25-74.58 region where the weekly bull channel

top is located. O/B studies and daily momentum divergence are key concerns for

bulls. In saying that, bears still need a close below $70.26 to ease bullish

pressure and shift initial focus back to $66.85-67.63.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]