MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

22 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Layers of Resistance Remain

*RES 4: $0.7683 - Falling daily TL off 2018 High

*RES 3: $0.7657 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 1: $0.7589 - High Apr 26

*PRICE: $0.7582 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7547 - High May 17 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7528 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7486 - Low May 18 

*SUP 4: $0.7445 - Low May 15

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to the 21-DMA took its toll Monday with a close

above $0.7547 confirming a break and bulls now looking for a close above $0.7589

to shift initial focus to $0.7648-83 where the 55-DMA and falling TL off 2018

highs are located. Bears now look for a close below the 21-DMA to signal a false

break higher and below $0.7410 to reconfirm the bearish bias and confirm focus

on the $0.7326-68 region where May & June 17 lows are noted.

     KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.6952

*RES 4: $0.7102 - Hourly support Apr 25 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7052 - High May 4 

*RES 2: $0.6996 - High May 9 

*RES 1: $0.6952 - Low May 11 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.6944 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6918 - Hourly support May 21

*SUP 2: $0.6849 - 2018 Low May 16

*SUP 3: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*SUP 4: $0.6779 - Monthly Low Nov 17

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 lows lacked follow through Wednesday which is less than

ideal for bears given daily studies lingering at O/S levels. Bears currently

focus on tests of Nov & Dec lows. In saying that, Monday's bounce is a concern

for bears. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.6952 to gain breathing

room and above $0.6996 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA ($0.6984) and shift

initial focus to $0.7052.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.0843 Support Confirms Significance

*RES 4: NZ$1.1139 - High Nov 14

*RES 3: NZ$1.1073 - 2018 High Jan 29

*RES 2: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*RES 1: NZ$1.0939 - High May 17

*PRICE: NZ$1.0913 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0843 - High May 11 now support

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0808 - 55-WMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0760 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0686 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears have so far failed to capitalise on Friday's sell-off with

the bounce from ahead of NZ$1.0843 to start the new week confirming significance

of this level. Bulls continue to look for a close above NZ$1.0939 to reconfirm

focus on 2018 highs. Bears now look for a close below NZ$1.0843 to confirm an

easing of bullish pressure and see focus shift back to tests of the 100-DMA

(NZ$1.0760). Correcting O/B daily studies are currently weighing.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bulls Targeting Key DMA & WMAs

*RES 4: Y86.95 - 200-WMA 

*RES 3: Y85.64 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Y85.49 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: Y84.51 - High Feb 21

*PRICE: Y84.19 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y83.42 - High May 18 now support

*SUP 2: Y82.60 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: Y82.51 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: Y82.00 - High May 9 now support

*COMMENTARY: Gains continued to start the new week with an aggressive rally that

sees the pair flirting with the 100-DMA (Y84.18) & 21-WMA (Y84.09). Bulls now

look for a close above the 100-DMA to add support to the case for a test of

200-DMA & WMAs. Daily studies approaching O/B are a concern for bulls. Initial

support is noted at Y83.42 with bears needing a close below to ease bullish

pressure.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Immediate Focus On 200-DMA

*RES 4: A$1.5771 - Monthly Low Apr 13 now resistance

*RES 3: A$1.5737 - 100-DMA

*RES 2: A$1.5651 - Low May 19 now resistance

*RES 1: A$1.5598 - Monthly Low Feb 20 now resistance

*PRICE: A$1.5543 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5495 - High Jan 25 now support 

*SUP 2: A$1.5467 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.5390 - Low Feb 1 

*SUP 4: A$1.5318 - 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair is gaining traction following the break of the weekly bull

channel base off 2017 lows with immediate focus now on the 200-DMA. Bears need a

close below to 200-DMA to initially target the 55-WMA and then 2018 lows

(A$1.5152). O/S daily studies are seen as the key concern for b ears. Bulls now

need a close above A$1.5598 to gain breathing room and above A$1.5771 to shift

focus higher.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: 94.142 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 94.058 - 2018 High May 21 

*RES 1: 93.724 - Hourly resistance May 21

*PRICE: 93.541 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 93.546 - Hourly support May 18

*SUP 2: 93.340 - Low May 18

*SUP 3: 93.051 - Hourly support May 15

*SUP 4: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 highs to start the new week have lacked follow through

which is less than ideal with daily studies lingering around O/B levels. Bears

continue to look for a close below 93.340 to ease bullish pressure and below the

200-DMA (91.952) to hint at a move back to 90.579-855 where 55 & 100-DMAs are

situated. Bulls now need a close above 94.219 to reconfirm a bullish bias and

retain focus on the 200-WMA (94.784).

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1838

*RES 4: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 3: $1.2019 200-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 1: $1.1838 High May 17

*PRICE: $1.1791 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1715 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 2: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.1688 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1.1552 Monthly Low Nov 7

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 lows to start the new week have lacked follow through

with the pair bouncing from ahead of the Bollinger band base. In saying that,

bulls continue to look for a close above $1.1838 to gain breathing room and

above $1.1889 to target a correction back to $1.1962-1.2053 where 21 & 200-DMAs

are noted. While $1.1838 caps bears retain immediate focus on $1.1690-1.1715

with overall focus on $1.1552 Now lows.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Gaining Traction Above 55-WMA

*RES 4: Y112.09 Daily Bull Channel top 

*RES 3: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 1: Y111.22 High Jan 22

*PRICE: Y111.04 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.44 55-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y110.02 High May 2 now support 

*SUP 3: Y109.64 Low May 15 

*SUP 4: Y109.13 Low May 11

*COMMENTARY: Bullish confidence grows with closes above the 55-WMA ensuring

pressure remains on Y111.49-98. A close above Y111.98 is then needed to target

Y112.97-113.75 where the 200-WMA, Dec and 2018 highs are noted. Bears still need

a close below Y110.02 to gain breathing room and below the 100-DMA (Y108.36) to

shift initial focus back to Y107.34-85 where the 55-DMA is noted. The Bollinger

top (Y111.11) remains the key concern for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.37 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Y132.07 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 high

*RES 3: Y131.37 High May 14

*RES 2: Y131.25 55-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.06 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y130.92 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.22 Low May 17 

*SUP 2: Y129.51 Low May 16 

*SUP 3: Y129.16 200-WMA

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the failure around 21 & 55-DMAs last week.

Y131.37 remains key resistance this week with bulls needing a close above to

confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs, easing bearish pressure, and above the 100-DMA

(Y132.45) to shift focus to Y133.48-134.10. While Y131.37 caps bears initially

focus on 2018 lows with a close below needed to target the daily bear channel

base around Y125.38 today.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1296.-1310.5 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1306.8 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: $1301.5 - Low May 1 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1296.9 - High May 16

*PRICE: $1288.9 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 2: $1277.5 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1268.9 - High Dec 21 

*SUP 4: $1234.3 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 lows lacked follow through Monday which is a concern for

bears give daily studies approaching O/S. In saying that, layers of resistance

remain with bulls now needing a close above the $1301.5 to gain breathing room

and above the 200-DMA to hint at a correction to $1324.4-1332.6. While $1296.9

caps bears maintain focus on $1268.9-1277.5 where the 100-WMA is situated.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Bull Channel Top Capping

*RES 4: $74.58 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 2: $72.86 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $72.68 - 2018 High May 17

*PRICE: $71.89 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $71.94 - Hourly support May 21 

*SUP 2: $71.09 - Low May 17 

*SUP 3: $70.24 - Low May 14 

*SUP 4: $69.69 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remained on the daily bull channel top last week with

bulls currently focused on the $73.25-74.58 region where the weekly bull channel

top is located. O/B studies and daily momentum divergence are key concerns for

bulls. In saying that, bears now need a close below $71.09 to gain breathing

room and below $70.24 to shift initial focus back to $66.88-67.57.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]