MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

23 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7677 - Falling daily TL off 2018 High

*RES 3: $0.7652 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 1: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*PRICE: $0.7575 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7547 - High May 17 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7526 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7486 - Low May 18 

*SUP 4: $0.7445 - Low May 15

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to the 21-DMA took its toll Monday with a close

above $0.7547 confirming a break and bulls now focused on $0.7620-77 where the

55-DMA and falling daily TL are noted. The Bollinger top ($0.7601) is the key

concern for bulls. Bears look for a close below the 21-DMA to signal a false

break higher and below $0.7410 to reconfirm the bearish bias and target

$0.7326-68 where May & June 17 lows are noted.

     KIWI TECHS: Capped Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7102 - Hourly support Apr 25 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7052 - High May 4 

*RES 2: $0.6996 - High May 9 

*RES 1: $0.6974 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.6932 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6918 - Hourly support May 21, Low May 23

*SUP 2: $0.6849 - 2018 Low May 16

*SUP 3: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*SUP 4: $0.6779 - Monthly Low Nov 17

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows looks to be in trouble with the pair

lacking follow through above $0.6952 and capped ahead of the 21-DMA. Bulls

continue to look for a close above $0.6996 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA

($0.6974) and shift initial focus to $0.7052. Momentum studies are back at

neutral levels and well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bears currently focus on

tests of Nov & Dec lows.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.0843 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: NZ$1.1139 - High Nov 14

*RES 3: NZ$1.1073 - 2018 High Jan 29

*RES 2: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*RES 1: NZ$1.0947 - High May 22

*PRICE: NZ$1.0923 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0843 - High May 11 now support

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0808 - 55-WMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0758 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0690 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears have so far failed to capitalise on Friday's sell-off with

the bounce from ahead of NZ$1.0843 to start the new week confirming significance

of this level. Bulls now look for a close above NZ$1.0947 to reconfirm focus on

2018 highs. Bears need a close below NZ$1.0843 to confirm an easing of bullish

pressure and see focus shift back to tests of the 100-DMA (NZ$1.0758).

Correcting O/B daily studies are the key concern for bulls.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Lacks Follow Through Above 100-DMA

*RES 4: Y86.95 - 200-WMA 

*RES 3: Y85.62 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Y85.49 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: Y84.51 - High Feb 21

*PRICE: Y84.00 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y83.52 - Hourly support May 21

*SUP 2: Y82.78 - High May 14 now support

*SUP 3: Y82.53 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: Y82.00 - High May 9 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to capitalise on the pop above the 100-DMA

(Y84.13) with the pair capped ahead of Y84.51. O/B daily studies and the

Bollinger top (Y84.06) remain concerns for bulls. In saying that, bears now need

a close below Y83.52 to shift immediate focus back to Y82.00-78 where 21 &

55-DMAs are located. Bulls now look for a close above Y84.51 to add support to

the case for a test of 200-DMA & WMAs.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Immediate Focus On 200-DMA

*RES 4: A$1.5771 - Monthly Low Apr 13 now resistance

*RES 3: A$1.5739 - 100-DMA

*RES 2: A$1.5651 - Low May 19 now resistance

*RES 1: A$1.5598 - Monthly Low Feb 20 now resistance

*PRICE: A$1.5544 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5471 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: A$1.5390 - Low Feb 1 

*SUP 3: A$1.5318 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: A$1.5256 - Low Jan 29

*COMMENTARY: The pair is gaining traction following the break of the weekly bull

channel base off 2017 lows with immediate focus now on the 200-DMA. Bears need a

close below to 200-DMA to initially target the 55-WMA and then 2018 lows

(A$1.5152). O/S daily studies are seen as the key concern for b ears. Bulls now

need a close above A$1.5598 to gain breathing room and above A$1.5771 to shift

focus higher.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 94.219

*RES 4: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: 94.211 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 94.058 - 2018 High May 21 

*RES 1: 93.734 - High May 22

*PRICE: 93.591 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 93.291 - Low May 22

*SUP 2: 93.051 - Hourly support May 15

*SUP 3: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 4: 92.595 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 highs to start the new week lacked follow through which

is less than ideal with daily studies lingering around O/B levels. Bears now

look for a close below 93.291 to ease bullish pressure and below the 200-DMA

(91.954) to hint at a move back to 90.597-929 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

Bulls now need a close above 94.219 to reconfirm a bullish bias and retain focus

on the 200-WMA (94.784).

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1838

*RES 4: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 3: $1.2019 200-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 1: $1.1838 High May 17

*PRICE: $1.1780 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1715 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 2: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.1684 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1.1552 Monthly Low Nov 7

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 lows Monday lacked follow through with the pair bouncing

from ahead of the Bollinger band base. In saying that, bulls continue to look

for a close above $1.1838 to gain breathing room and above $1.1889 to target a

correction back to $1.2019-1.2053 where the 200-DMA is noted. While $1.1838 caps

bears retain immediate focus on $1.1690-1.1715 with overall focus on $1.1552 Now

lows.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Below 21-DMA To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: Y112.22 Daily Bull Channel top 

*RES 3: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 1: Y111.39 High May 21

*PRICE: Y110.90 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.44 55-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y110.02 High May 2 now support 

*SUP 3: Y109.83 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.64 Low May 15

*COMMENTARY: Bullish confidence grows with closes above the 55-WMA ensuring

pressure remains on Y111.49-98. A close above Y111.98 remains needed to target

Y112.97-113.75 where the 200-WMA, Dec and 2018 highs are noted. Bears now need a

close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below the 100-DMA (Y108.35)

to shift initial focus back to Y107.85-87 where the 55-DMA is noted. The

Bollinger top (Y111.19) remains the key concern for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.37 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Y132.42 200-DMA

*RES 3: Y132.40 100-DMA

*RES 2: Y132.00 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 high

*RES 1: Y131.37 High May 14

*PRICE: Y130.59 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.22 Low May 17 

*SUP 2: Y129.51 Low May 16 

*SUP 3: Y129.16 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in failures around 21 & 55-DMAs. Y131.37 remains

key resistance this week with bulls needing a close above to confirm breaks of

21 & 55-DMAs, easing bearish pressure, and above the 200-DMA (Y132.42) to shift

focus to Y133.48-134.10. While Y131.37 caps bears initially focus on 2018 lows

with a close below needed to target the daily bear channel base around Y125.31

today.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1296.-1310.5 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1306.8 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: $1301.5 - Low May 1 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1296.9 - High May 16

*PRICE: $1290.9 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 2: $1277.5 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1268.9 - High Dec 21 

*SUP 4: $1234.3 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 lows lacked follow through Monday which is a concern for

bears give daily studies approaching O/S. In saying that, layers of resistance

remain with bulls now needing a close above the $1301.5 to gain breathing room

and above the 200-DMA to hint at a correction to $1324.4-1332.6. While $1296.9

caps bears maintain focus on $1268.9-1277.5 where the 100-WMA is situated.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Bull Channel Top Capping

*RES 4: $74.58 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 2: $72.99 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $72.90 - 2018 High May 22

*PRICE: $72.13 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $71.82 - Low May 22 

*SUP 2: $71.09 - Low May 17 

*SUP 3: $70.24 - Low May 14 

*SUP 4: $69.85 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on the daily bull channel top with bulls currently

focused on the $73.25-74.58 region where the weekly bull channel top is located.

O/B studies and daily momentum divergence are key concerns for bulls. In saying

that, bears now need a close below $71.09 to gain breathing room and below the

21-DMA now to shift initial focus back to $66.88-67.57.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]