MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

31 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bounce Returns Focus To Falling TL

*RES 4: $0.7644 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high

*RES 3: $0.7621 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*RES 1: $0.7590- High May 25

*PRICE: $0.7576 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7558 - Hourly resistance May 30 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7530 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7474 - Low May 30 

*SUP 4: $0.7454 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the close below the 21-DMA with

Wednesday's rally and close back above the 21-DMA returning focus to

$0.7590-0.7644 where the 55-DMA and falling daily TL are noted. Bulls need a

close above the falling daily TL to end bearish hopes and shift focus to

$0.7735-0.7842. Bears again look for a close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing

room and add weight to the case for a test of 2018 lows.

     KIWI TECHS: $0.6998 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: $0.7117 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $0.7102 - Hourly support Apr 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7052 - High May 4 

*RES 1: $0.6998 - High May 30

*PRICE: $0.6985 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6959 - High May 28 now support

*SUP 2: $0.6945 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: $0.6880 - Low May 30

*SUP 4: $0.6849 - 2018 Low May 16

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the aggressive bounce and close above the

21-DMA Wednesday but now look for a close above $0.6998 to confirm a correction

targeting $0.7102-57 where 55 & 200-DMAs are noted. The 21-DMA is now key

support. Bears now look for a close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and

return focus to $0.6849-80 where 2018 lows are situated.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: 200-DMA Now Capping

*RES 4: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*RES 3: NZ$1.0962 - High May 25

*RES 2: NZ$1.0906 - Low May 25 now resistance

*RES 1: NZ$1.0884 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: NZ$1.0839 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0802 - Low May 30

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0755 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0704 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0697 - High May 9 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on Friday's 3mth highs resulted in a

sell-off Monday that saw the pair close below the 200-DMA. Bears take comfort in

the dip Wednesday with focus having shifted to NZ$1.0697-55 where 55 & 100-DMAs

are noted. The NZ$1.0906 resistance remains key topside. Bulls now need a close

above NZ$1.0906 to confirm a break above the 200-DMA & regain the upper hand and

above NZ$1.0962 to reconfirm focus on 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Flirting With 21 & 55-DMAs

*RES 4: Y84.04 - High May 23 

*RES 3: Y83.88 - Hourly support May 23 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y83.54 - Hourly resistance May 23 

*RES 1: Y82.59 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y82.48 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.32 - Hourly resistance May 30 now support

*SUP 2: Y81.93 - Hourly support May 30

*SUP 3: Y81.04 - Low May 30

*SUP 4: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*COMMENTARY: Bears have failed to capitalise on Tuesday's sharp sell-off with an

aggressive rally Wednesday seeing the pair flirting with the 21 (Y82.59) & 55

(Y82.40) DMAs. Bulls now need a close above Y82.61 to confirm traction above 21

& 55-DMAs and above Y83.42 to return focus to Y84.06-85.52 where the 200-DMA

(Y85.50) is found. Bears now look for a close below Y81.93 to return focus to

Y80.51-81.04.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.5526-1.5651 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: A$1.5618 - High May 23

*RES 3: A$1.5526 - High May 24

*RES 2: A$1.5495 - High May 28

*RES 1: A$1.5340 - High May 3

*PRICE: A$1.5395 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5358 - Low May 30 

*SUP 2: A$1.5314 - Low May 29 

*SUP 3: A$1.5256 - Low Jan 29 

*SUP 4: A$1.5152 - 2018 Low Jan 11

*COMMENTARY: The pair is currently flirting with the 55-WMA (A41.5327) with

bears needing a close below to add weight to the case for an initial test of

2018 lows. Below 2018 lows targets 100 & 200-WMAs (A$1.4866-1.4908). O/S daily

studies remain the key concern for bears as the pair hesitates ahead of the

200-DMA (A$1.5486). Bulls still need a close above A$1.5526 to gain breathing

room and above A$1.5651 to shift initial focus to the 100-DMA A$1.5747.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Looking A Little Heavy

*RES 4: 95.167 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 3: 95.025 - 2018 High May 29 

*RES 2: 94.695 - Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 1: 94.236 - Hourly support May 30 now resistance

*PRICE: 94.093 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.038 - Low May 30

*SUP 2: 93.611 - Low May 24

*SUP 3: 93.345 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 93.291 - Low May 22

*COMMENTARY: Wednesday's sell-off resulted in a close below 94.277, easing

bullish pressure and seeing the index flirt with the daily bull channel base

(94.147). Bears now look for a close below this level to add weight to the case

for a correction initially targeting 92.841-93.611 where the 21-DMA is located.

Correcting O/B studies are a concern for bulls who now need a close above 94.695

to pressure 2018 highs.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Correcting Back To $1.1750-1.1838

*RES 4: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 3: $1.1838 High May 17

*RES 2: $1.1795 21-DMA

*RES 1: $1.1750 High May 24

*PRICE: $1.1662 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1643 Alternating support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $1.1594 Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 3: $1.1549 Hourly resistance May 30 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies appear to be impacting with a rally from ahead of

2018 lows. The close above $1.1643 eases bearish pressure with bulls now looking

for a correction back to $1.1750-1.1838. Bulls need a close above $1.1838 to

confirm a break of the 21-DMA and target $1.2015-53 where the 200-DMA is noted.

Bears now look for a close below $1.1594 to return immediate pressure to 2018

lows.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y109.13

*RES 4: Y110.72 Hourly support May 22 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y110.19 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Y109.69 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y109.13 Hourly resistance May 29

*PRICE: Y108.89 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.14 55-DMA, 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y107.85 High Apr 20 now support 

*SUP 3: Y106.85 Low Apr 17 

*SUP 4: Y106.60 Low Apr 10

*COMMENTARY: Tuesday's sell-off saw the pair dip into the Y107.85-108.16 region

where 55 & 100-DMAs and the 21-WMA (Y108.12) are situated. Bears continue to

look for a close below Y107.85 to confirm breaks of 55 & 100-DMAs and shift

initial focus to Y106.60. Daily studies have room to move before O/S is an

issue. Bulls still need a close above Y109.13 to gain breathing room and above

Y110.72 to shift initial focus back to Y111.39-98.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y127.30 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: Y129.38 21-DMA

*RES 3: Y129.09 200-WMA

*RES 2: Y128.53 High May 28

*RES 1: Y127.30 High May 30

*PRICE: Y127.02 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y126.22 Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 2: Y125.71 Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 3: Y124.61 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 4: Y123.63 Low June 21 2017

*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction below the 100-WMA (Y125.15) and

confirm the break of the pivotal Y125.80 level has resulted in a bounce

Wednesday. Correcting O/S studies add support to the case for a correction back

to Y128.53-129.59 where the 21-DMA & 200-WMA are found. Bulls now need a close

above Y127.30 to confirm the correction. Layers of support are building with

bears now needing a close below Y125.70 to return initial pressure to 2018 lows.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-WMA

*RES 4: $1325.6 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: $1320.4 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1307.3 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: $1301.0 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1293.4 - Low May 29 

*SUP 2: $1287.4 - Low May 22 

*SUP 3: $1282.7 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21

*COMMENTARY: Attempts to rally remain capped by the 200-DMA despite daily

studies correcting their O/S condition. Bulls still need a close above $1310.5

to confirm breaks of 21 & 200-DMAs and shift initial focus to $1320.4-1325.6

where 55 & 100-DMAs & the 21-WMA are noted. Bears continue to look for a close

below the 100-WMA to target the 200-WMA ($1234.3).

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Targeting Correction Back to 21-DMA

*RES 4: $71.09 - Low May 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: $70.10 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $69.57 - Hourly resistance May 25 

*RES 1: $68.67 - High May 30

*PRICE: $68.25 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $68.03 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 2: $67.42 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $66.35 - Low May 30 

*SUP 4: $65.80 - Low May 28

*COMMENTARY: Having found support on the dip below the bull channel base off Feb

lows bulls take comfort in the close above $67.42 that provides breathing room

and increases the risk of a correction back to the 21-DMA. Bulls now need a

close above $71.09 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and return initial focus to

2018 highs $72.90). Bears now need a close below $65.38 to pressure the 100-DMA

($64.56).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]