MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

19 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7481 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: $0.7583 - Hourly resistance June 13

*RES 3: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7481 - High June 15

*RES 1: $0.7456 - High June 18

*PRICE: $0.7421 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9 

*SUP 2: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017 

*SUP 3: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures ahead of $0.7627 left the pair looking heavy last

week and provided the catalyst for a sharp sell-off that sees bears focused on

2018 lows once more and then $0.7326-68 May & June 2017 lows. Layers of

resistance have been left in the wake with bulls needing a close above $0.7481

to gain breathing room and above $0.7627 to shift initial focus back to layers

of resistance $0.7682-0.7735 where 100 & 200-DMAs are noted.

     KIWI TECHS: Bears Focused On 2018 Low

*RES 4: $0.7059 - High May 4 

*RES 3: $0.7021 - Hourly resistance June 14a 

*RES 2: $0.6999 - Hourly resistance June 14 

*RES 1: $0.6969 - Low June 14 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.6939 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6918 - Low June 18

*SUP 2: $0.6880 - Low May 30

*SUP 3: $0.6849 - 2018 Low May 16

*SUP 4: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through the past week or so and

hesitation ahead of $0.7059 combined with daily studies at O/B levels resulted

in losses last week with immediate focus now back on 2018 lows. Fresh 2018 lows

are now required to confirm focus on $0.6779 2017 lows. Bulls now need a close

above $0.6969 to gain breathing room and above $0.6999 to return focus to layers

of resistance $0.7059-0.7198.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.0759-93 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: NZ$1.0854 - High June 8

*RES 3: NZ$1.0839 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0793 - High June 14

*RES 1: NZ$1.0759 - High June 15

*PRICE: NZ$1.0704 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0684 - Low June 18

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0655 - Low May 9

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0601 - High Apr 17 now support

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0549 - Low Apr 16

*COMMENTARY: The break of the key NZ$1.0697 support has so far lacked follow

through which is less than ideal as daily studies approach O/S. The NZ$1.0759-93

resistance is key today. Bulls now need a close above NZ$1.0759 to gain

breathing room and above NZ$1.0793 to shift focus back to NZ$1.0839-1.0906 where

21 & 200-DMAs are noted. Bears now focus on a close below NZ$1.655 to add weight

to the case for a test of NZ$1.0486-00 where the LT rising TL is noted.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Resistance Layers Accumulating

*RES 4: Y83.63 - High June 14 

*RES 3: Y83.37 - Hourly resistance June 14 

*RES 2: Y82.97 - Hourly support June 14 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y82.49 - Hourly resistance June 15

*PRICE: Y82.05 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y81.89 - Low June 18

*SUP 2: Y81.04 - Low May 30

*SUP 3: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*SUP 4: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to the 55-DMA (Y82.79) resulted in a close below

Thursday, ending bullish hopes and shifting focus back to Y80.51-81.04.

Correcting O/B studies add weight to the bearish case with room to move before

O/S is an issue. Bulls need a close above Y82.97 to gain breathing room and

above Y83.63 to shift focus back to layers of resistance Y83.98-84.53.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Above A$1.5771 To End Bearish Hopes

*RES 4: A$1.5771 - Low May 11 now resistance

*RES 3: A$1.5765 - 100-DMA

*RES 2: A$1.5739 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: A$1.5692 - High June 14

*PRICE: A$1.5651 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5624 - Hourly support June 18 

*SUP 2: A$1.5541 - Low June 18 

*SUP 3: A$1.5477 - Hourly support June 15 

*SUP 4: A$1.5424 - Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: Last week's late recovery from a dip below the 55-WMA (A41.5355)

saw gains continue Monday with focus currently on layers of resistance

A$1.5692-1.5771 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bulls need a close above A$1.5771

to confirm breaks of 55 & 100-DMAs, shifting immediate focus to A$1.5967 and

overall focus to tests of 2018 highs. Bears now need a close below A$1.5624 to

gain breathing room.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Lacks Follow Through Above 200-WMA

*RES 4: 95.464 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 3: 95.167 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 2: 95.131 - 2018 High June 15 

*RES 1: 95.042 - 200-WMA

*PRICE: 94.753 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 94.587 - Hourly resistance June 14 now support

*SUP 2: 94.028 - High June 13 now support

*SUP 3: 93.193 - Low June 14

*SUP 4: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Bulls regained the upper hand with an aggressive rally Thursday

that sees immediate pressure on 95.042-95.167 where the 200-WMA and 2018 highs

are located. Bulls look for a close above 95.167 to initially target 96.512

weekly highs from July 2017. Bears continue to look for a close below 94.587 to

gain breathing room and below 94.028 to shift focus back to 92.841-93.193.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1723 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.1690 21-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1660 Hourly resistance June 14

*RES 1: $1.1627 High June 15

*PRICE: $1.1621 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1541 Low June 15, Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 3: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017 

*SUP 4: $1.1406 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: An inside day to start the week with bears remaining focused on

tests of 2018 lows. Daily studies remain well placed for a fresh leg lower with

the Bollinger base ($1.1541) the key concern. Bears continue to look for a close

below $1.1311 to confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1429) & 200-WMAs, shifting immediate

focus to $1.1117 June 2017 lows. Bulls still need a close above $1.1723 to shift

focus back to $1.1854-94.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.01-84 Support Region Key

*RES 4: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 3: Y111.39 High May 21 

*RES 2: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 1: Y110.84 High June 13

*PRICE: Y110.53 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.24 Hourly support June 14, 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y109.84 Hourly resistance June 11 now support 

*SUP 3: Y109.13 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in closes above the 200-DMA (Y110.24) but still

need a close above Y110.90 to confirm traction above the 200-DMA and return

immediate focus to Y111.39-98. Initial support is noted at Y110.24 with bears

still needing a close below Y109.84 to ease bullish pressure and below Y109.01

to pressure Y107.85-108.13 where the 100-DMA is found. Daily studies at O/B

levels is less than ideal for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y127.10 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: Y130.33 55-DMA

*RES 3: Y129.65 Hourly support June 13 now resistance

*RES 2: Y129.26 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 1: Y128.64 Hourly resistance June 14

*PRICE: Y128.48 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.56 Low June 4 

*SUP 2: Y127.10 Low June 1 

*SUP 3: Y126.22 Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 4: Y124.61 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of the 55-DMA (Y130.33) and

Y130.33-132.59 where key DMAs, WMAs and the daily bear channel top are situated

combined with O/B studies looking to correct provided the impetus for a sharp

sell-off that shifted overall focus back to 2018 lows. Bears now need a close

below Y127.10 to add weight to their case. Bulls now need a close above Y128.64

to gain breathing room and above 129.65 to pressure the 55-DMA once again.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Pressuring 100-WMA

*RES 4: $1305.2 - Hourly resistance June 14 

*RES 3: $1295.3 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1286.2 - Hourly resistance June 15 

*RES 1: $1280.8 - High June 18

*PRICE: $1277.9 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1275.4 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 2: $1275.0 - 2018 Low June 15 

*SUP 3: $1268.9 - High Dec 21 now support 

*SUP 4: $1234.1 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The $1310.5 resistance reconfirmed significance with the pop above

the 200-DMA ($1306.0) lacking follow through. Friday's sell-off resulted in 2018

lows with immediate pressure on the 100-WMA. Bears need a close below the

100-WMA to add weight to the case for a test of the 200-WMA. Bulls need a close

above $1286.2 to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA to return pressure to

$1310.5.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Above $68.52 To End Bearish Hopes

*RES 4: $68.52 - High May 30 

*RES 3: $67.38 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $67.28 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $66.18 - Low June 14 now resistance

*PRICE: $65.69 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $65.29 - Hourly resistance May 18 now support 

*SUP 2: $64.78 - Hourly support June 18 

*SUP 3: $63.98 - Low June 18 

*SUP 4: $63.21 - Daily bull channel base off Aug 30 low

*COMMENTARY: Volatile trading continued to start the new week with contract

recovering from the day's low to gain breathing room and remain gently bid.

Focus now returns to $67.28-68.52 where 21 & 55-DMAs are noted. Bulls need a

close above $68.52 to end bearish hopes and shift initial focus back to

$70.86-72.70. Bears now need a close below $64.78 to return focus to the bull

channel base ($63.21) of Aug 30 lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]