MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

27 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Correcting O/S Studies Key Concern For Bears

*RES 4: $0.7552 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7510 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7481 - High June 15

*RES 1: $0.7443 - Highs June 25 & 26

*PRICE: $0.7390 @ 210GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7342 - 2018 Low June 21 

*SUP 2: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017 

*SUP 3: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7246 - High Dec 30 now support

*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S daily studies remain the key concern for bears who

now need a close below $0.7326 to shift focus to $0.7150-60 where 2017 lows are

noted. Initial resistance is now noted at $0.7443 where the recovery appears to

have stalled for now, but bulls look for a close above $0.7481 to shift initial

focus back to $0.7552-0.7627 where the 55 ($0.7552) DMA is located. Above the

55-DMA then initially targets $0.7627-0.7735.

     KIWI TECHS: Immediate Pressure Back On 2018 Low

*RES 4: $0.6999 - Hourly resistance June 14 

*RES 3: $0.6969 - Low June 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.6921 - High June 25 

*RES 1: $0.6882 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*PRICE: $0.6852 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6846 - Hourly support June 21a

*SUP 2: $0.6823 - 2018 Low June 21

*SUP 3: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*SUP 4: $0.6779 - 2017 Low Nov 17

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low appears to have stalled with

immediate pressure back on 2018 lows and the pair looking offered once again.

Bears now look for a close below $0.6779 to reconfirm the bearish bias and focus

on $0.6543-0.6674 where the weekly bear channel base is noted along with monthly

lows. Bulls now need a close above $0.6921 to gain breathing room and above the

55-DMA ($0.7014) to return focus to $0.7059-0.7157 where key DMAs are noted.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Bear Channel Top

*RES 4: NZ$1.0862 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0854 - High June 8

*RES 2: NZ$1.0798 - Daily Bear channel top off May high

*RES 1: NZ$1.0793 - High June 14

*PRICE: NZ$1.0784 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0759 - Hourly support June 26

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0709 - Low June 22

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0655 - Low May 9 & June 19

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0601 - High Apr 17 now support

*COMMENTARY: The break of the key NZ$1.0697 support lacked follow through last

week which is less than ideal with daily studies correcting from O/S.

NZ$1.0793-98 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above the bear channel

top to shift focus back to NZ$1.0854-1.0906. Bears still need a close below

NZ$1.0709 to reconfirm focus on a close below NZ$1.0655 to add weight to the

case for a test of NZ$1.0486-1.0502 where the LT rising TL is noted.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y81.93 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Y83.37 - Hourly resistance June 14 

*RES 3: Y82.97 - Hourly support June 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y82.49 - Hourly resistance June 15 

*RES 1: Y81.93 - High June 22

*PRICE: y81.32 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y80.95 - Low June 26

*SUP 2: Y80.63 - Low June 19

*SUP 3: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23

*SUP 4: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*COMMENTARY: The failure to make fresh 2018 lows last week is a concern for

bears and leaves daily studies correcting from O/S levels. Bulls still need a

close above Y81.93 to gain breathing room and above Y82.97 to confirm breaks of

key DMAs and to shift focus back to layers of resistance Y83.63-85.00 where the

200-DMA is noted. Bears look for a close below Y80.24 to shift focus to

Y74.50-75.95.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below A$1.5710

*RES 4: A$1.6056 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*RES 3: A$1.5967 - High May 9

*RES 2: A$1.5887 - High May 15

*RES 1: A$1.5822 - High June 26

*PRICE: A$1.5752 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5710 - Hourly resistance June 25 now support 

*SUP 2: A$1.5650 - Low June 22 

*SUP 3: A$1.5615 - Low June 20 

*SUP 4: A$1.5541 - Low June 18

*COMMENTARY: The break of A$1.5771 and the 100-DMA (A$1.5773) has so far lacked

follow through with O/B daily studies now weighing. In saying that, bears now

look for a close below A$1.5710 to confirm a false break higher and return

initial focus to A$1.5615-50. While A$1.5710 supports bulls remain focused on

A$1.5887-1.5967 but now look for a close above A$1.5822 to add support to their

case.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 100-WMA

*RES 4: 95.529 - 2018 High June 21 

*RES 3: 95.372 - Hourly resistance June 21a 

*RES 2: 95.040 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 1: 94.880 - High June 22

*PRICE: 94.685 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 94.415 - Hourly support June 26

*SUP 2: 93.171 - Low June 26

*SUP 3: 94.028 - High June 13 now support

*SUP 4: 93.193 - Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on a dip below the 21-DMA (94.262) has seen the

index bounce back towards layers of resistance. Bulls now look for a close above

94.880 to return immediate focus to the 100-WMA (95.562). A close above the

100-WMA remains needed to target 96.617. 94.028 remains key support. Bears look

for a close below 94.028 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (94.262) and shift

initial focus to 93.193.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Key Resistance Region Capping

*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 3: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.1719 Daily Bear Channel top off Apr 19 high

*RES 1: $1.1685 Hourly resistance June 26

*PRICE: $1.1645 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1625 Low June 25 

*SUP 2: $1.1598 Low June 22 

*SUP 3: $1.1574 Hourly support June 21 

*SUP 4: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low has stalled around the daily bear

channel top and key $1.1723 resistance. Bulls now need a close above $1.1723 to

confirm an easing of bearish pressure and to shift immediate focus to

$1.1854-1.1903 where the 55 DMA & WMA are noted. Bears continue to look for a

close below 2018 lows to shift immediate focus to $1.1311 although 100 ($1.1435)

& 200 ($1.1399) WMAs may support along the way.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.01 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 3: Y110.90 High June 15 

*RES 2: Y110.31 Hourly support June 21 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y110.20 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y110.01 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.45 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1 

*SUP 3: Y108.70 Low June 1 

*SUP 4: Y108.17 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains capped ahead of Y110.90 having remained capped by

the 200-DMA (Y110.20) Tuesday. Bulls need a close above Y110.90 to confirm

traction and shift initial focus to Y111.39-98. Bears still need a close below

Y109.01 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (Y109.45) and Bull channel base,

initially pressuring Y107.85-108.17 where the 100-DMA is found with below

Y107.85 to shift focus back to 2018 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y128.81

*RES 4: Y129.65 Hourly support June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: Y129.26 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 2: Y128.81 High June 25

*RES 1: Y128.54 Hourly resistance June 25

*PRICE: Y128.16 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.77 Low June 26 

*SUP 2: Y127.50 Daily Bull channel base off 2018 low 

*SUP 3: Y126.98 Low June 21 

*SUP 4: Y126.63 Low June 19

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips back towards the

bull channel base. In saying that, bulls continue to look for a close above

Y128.81 to gain breathing room and above 129.65 to pressure the 55-DMA (Y129.92)

once again. Correcting O/S studies are a concern for bears who now need a close

below Y127.77 to retain focus on Y126.22 and the close below needed to add

weight to the case for a test of 2018 lows (Y124.61).

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Focused On 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1284.1 - High June 19 

*RES 3: $1274.4 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: $1272.5 - High June 25 

*RES 1: $1262.7 - Hourly support June 26 now resistance

*PRICE: $1258.6 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1254.2 - 2018 Low June 26 

*SUP 2: $1249.9 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 3: $1237.6 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low 

*SUP 4: $1234.0 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows add weight to the bearish case targeting

tests of the 200-WMA and LT rising TL of 2015 lows around $1237.6. The Bollinger

base ($1258.3) and O/S daily studies looking to correct are noted as key concern

for bears. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 100-WMA to gain

breathing room and above $1292.1 to return pressure to $1303.1-1310.5.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Below $69.44 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: $77.83 - High Nov 21 2014 

*RES 3: $73.25 - Low Nov 14 2014 now resistance 

*RES 2: $72.70 - Monthly High May 22 

*RES 1: $70.91 - High June 26

*PRICE: $70.68 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $70.02 - Hourly support June 26 

*SUP 2: $69.44 - High June 25 now support 

*SUP 3: $68.88 - Hourly resistance June 26 now support 

*SUP 4: $67.72 - Low June 26

*COMMENTARY: Support around the 55-DMA ($67.80) provided the base for an

aggressive rally and bullish close that sees immediate focus on $72.70-73.25.

Bulls need a close above $73.25 to shift focus to $77.83-79.85 levels last seen

in Nov 2014. Support layers building add to bullish confidence with a close

below $69.44 to ease bullish pressure and below $67.72 to hint at a move back to

$63.40-67 with below the 21-DMA ($66.36) to confirm.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]