MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

3 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7443-81 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $0.7481 - High June 15, 21-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7443 - Highs June 25 & 26

*RES 2: $0.7414 - High July 2

*RES 1: $0.7365 - Alternating hourly support /resistance

*PRICE: $0.7338 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 2: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 3: $0.7246 - High Dec 30 2016 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7245 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth lows Monday add to bearish confidence with bears

targeting $0.7152 Dec 2016 monthly lows, although the weekly bear channel base

($0.7216) may slow the move. In saying that, bulls need a close above $0.7443 to

gain breathing room and above $0.7481 to shift initial focus back to the 55 DMA

($0.7521). A close above the 55-DMA then initially targets $0.7627-0.7735 where

100 & 200-DMAs are situated.

     KIWI TECHS: $0.6823-0.6921 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $0.6845 - Low June 26 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.6823 - Low June 21 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.6792 - High July 2 

*RES 1: $0.6734 - Low June 29 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.6715 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6687 - 2018 Low July 2

*SUP 2: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016

*SUP 3: $0.6577 - Weekly Bear channel base

*SUP 4: $0.6574 - Low Mar 16 2017

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation at $0.6921 sees repeated fresh 2018 & 2+yr lows

with bearish focus on $0.6543-0.6674 where the weekly bear channel base and

monthly lows are situated. O/S studies and the Bollinger base ($0.6694) are key

concerns for bears. Bulls now need a close above $0.6823 to gain breathing room

and above $0.6921 to shift focus back to $0.6968-96 where the 55-DMA is noted.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Hinting At Test Of 2018 High, NZ$1.0962 Key This Week

*RES 4: NZ$1.1073 - 2018 High Jan 29

*RES 3: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*RES 2: NZ$1.0962 - High May 25

*RES 1: NZ$1.0942 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: NZ$1.0928 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0885 - Low July 2

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0862 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0830 - Hourly support June 28

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0775 - Low June 27

*COMMENTARY: Focus returning to the NZ$1.0906 resistance last week paid off with

the close above NZ$1.0906 seeing overall focus shift to retests of 2018 highs,

although a close above NZ$1.0962 is needed to add support to their case. Initial

support is now note at NZ$1.0885, but bears continue to look for a close below

NZ$1.0830 to ease bullish pressure and return focus to NZ$1.0775-1.0803 where 21

& 55-DMAs are located.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Below Y80.24 To Target Y74.50-75.95

*RES 4: Y82.51 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: Y82.28 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y82.10 - High July 2 

*RES 1: Y81.48 - Hourly support July 2 now resistance

*PRICE: Y81.36 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y80.99 - Low July 2

*SUP 2: Y81.05 - Low June 29

*SUP 3: Y80.63 - Low June 19

*SUP 4: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: Despite bearish pressure the past couple of weeks bears have failed

to make fresh 2018 lows. The bounce last week saw bulls gain breathing room but

key DMAs clustered tightly Y82.28-64 are a concern. Bulls now need a close above

the 100-DMA (Y82.64) to end bearish hopes and shift focus back to Y83.63-85.00

where the 200-DMA is noted. While the 100-DMA caps bears target a break lower.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below A$1.5825

*RES 4: A$1.6056 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*RES 3: A$1.5967 - High May 9

*RES 2: A$1.5926 - Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5887 - High May 15

*PRICE: A$1.5851 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5825 - High June 27 now support 

*SUP 2: A$1.5777 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.5709 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: A$1.5694 - Low June 27

*COMMENTARY: The break higher sees fresh 2mth highs Monday and immediate focus

now on A$1.5887-1.5967 with a close above needed to confirm focus on

A$1.6056-1.6140 where 2018 & monthly highs are noted. O/B studies remain the key

concern for bulls. Bars now look for a close below A$1.5825 to gain breathing

room and hint at a correction back to A$1.5615-1.5709 where the 55-DMA is noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 100-WMA Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 96.617 - High June 28 2017 

*RES 3: 95.613 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 95.547 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: 95.141 - High July 2

*PRICE: 94.852 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.415 - Hourly support June 26

*SUP 2: 94.403 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 94.028 - High June 13 now support

*SUP 4: 93.284 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs have lacked follow through with hesitation

around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls continue to look for a close above the

100-WMA (95.547) to target 96.617. The 94.028 support remains key. Bears need a

close below this level to confirm traction below the 21-DMA and to shift focus

back to 92.211-93.284 where 55 & 200-DMAs are located.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1723 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 3: $1.1817 55-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1697 Hourly resistance July 2

*PRICE: $1.1638 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1575 Hourly resistance June 29 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 3: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017 

*SUP 4: $1.1440 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the bear channel top off Apr 19 highs capping

last week with the $1.1723 resistance remaining key. Bulls still need a close

above $1.1723 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA ($1.1667) and bear channel top

($1.1663) initially targeting $1.1817-1.1901. Bears continue to look for a close

below $1.1506 to shift immediate focus to $1.1311 although 100 ($1.1440) & 200

($1.1392) WMAs may slow the move.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y112.04 To Target 200-WMA & 2018 High

*RES 4: Y112.04 Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 2: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 

*RES 1: Y111.18 High May 22

*PRICE: Y110.85 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.38 Low June 29 

*SUP 2: Y109.95 Low June 28 

*SUP 3: Y109.71 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as the pair finds support on dips with focus on

Y111.39-112.04 where May highs are noted. Bulls now look for a close above

Y112.04 to end bearish hopes, shifting immediate focus to Y113.22-44 where the

200-WMA (Y113.22) is noted and overall focus to Y114.72 Nov highs. Bears now

need a close below Y110.38 to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA to return

pressure to Y109.01. A close below Y109.01 initially targets Y107.85-108.24.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 100-DMA Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: Y130.41 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y129.95 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 highs

*RES 2: Y129.65 Hourly support June 13 now resistance, 55-DMA

*RES 1: Y129.09 Hourly support July 2 now resistance

*PRICE: Y129.03 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.40 Low July 2 

*SUP 2: Y127.95 Hourly resistance June 29 now support 

*SUP 3: Y126.98 Low June 21 

*SUP 4: Y126.63 Low June 19

*COMMENTARY: The rally from last week's low saw pressure return to

Y129.65-130.45 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bear channel top off 2018 highs are

situated. Bears take comfort in the topside failure Monday with bulls needing a

close above the 100-DMA (Y130.41) to initially target Y131.37-132.59 where the

200-DMA (Y132.01) is noted. The Y126.22 support remains key this week with bears

needing a close below to confirm immediate focus on tests of 2018 lows.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Pressuring 200-WMA & LT Rising TL

*RES 4: $1262.7 - Hourly support June 26 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1260.1 - High June 27 

*RES 2: $1255.6 - High June 29 

*RES 1: $1247.6 - Hourly support July 2 now resistance

*PRICE: $1241.6 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1239.1 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low 

*SUP 2: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12 

*SUP 3: $1233.8 - 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1227.1 - High July 7 2017 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows continue with immediate pressure on the

200-WMA and LT rising TL of 2015 lows coming in around $1237.9. The Bollinger

base ($1238.4) and O/S daily studies looking to correct remain key concern for

bears. Bulls still look for a close above $1262.7 to gain breathing room and

above $1284.1 to return pressure to $1292.2-1310.5 where 55 & 200-DMAs are

noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) $72.18 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: $79.85 - High Nov 10 2014 

*RES 3: $77.83 - High Nov 21 2014 

*RES 2: $75.96 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $74.46 - 2018 High June 29

*PRICE: $74.06 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $73.42 - Hourly support July 2 

*SUP 2: $72.51 - Low July 2 

*SUP 3: $72.18 - Hourly support June 27 

*SUP 4: $71.40 - Hourly resistance June 27 now support

*COMMENTARY: Support around the 55-DMA ($68.36) provided the base for gains that

resulted in fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs. Bulls focus on the $75.96-79.85 region

where the LT weekly bull channel top ($75.96) is situated. O/B studies and the

Bollinger top ($74.03) remain concerns for bulls. In saying that, bears now need

a close below $72.18 to gain breathing room and below $71.40 to shift initial

focus back to $69.44-70.02.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]