MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

11 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Below 21-DMA To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: $0.7552 - Weekly Low June 4 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7497 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7484 - High July 10

*PRICE: $0.7441 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7413 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7348 - Hourly resistance July 3 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 55-DMA is a concern for bulls and resulted

in a dip back toward the 21-DMA. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to confirm

an easing of bullish pressure and to shift focus back to 2018 lows. Bulls look

for a close above the 55-DMA to hint at a move back to $0.7611-0.7735 where 100

($0.7608) & 200 ($0.7689) DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming. Daily

studies approaching O/B is now an issue for bulls.

     KIWI TECHS: 21-DMA Capping, $0.6741-97 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $0.6928 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $0.6921 - High June 25 

*RES 2: $0.6882 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 1: $0.6850 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.6827 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6797 - High July 5 now support

*SUP 2: $0.6741 - Low July 4

*SUP 3: $0.6686 - 2018 Low July 3

*SUP 4: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the $0.6674 May

2016 low that along with correcting O/S studies provided the impetus for a

bounce last week. This week bulls look for a close above the 55-DMA ($0.6928) to

hint at a move back to $0.7059-0.7157 where 100 ($0.7079) & 200 ($0.7078) DMAs

and key WMAs are clustered. Bears need a close below $0.6797 to ease pressure on

the 21-DMA and below $0.6741 to reconfirm focus on $0.6674-86.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below NZ$1.0830

*RES 4: NZ$1.0992 - High July 3

*RES 3: NZ$1.0957 - Hourly support July 3 now resistance

*RES 2: NZ$1.0926 - High July 4

*RES 1: NZ$1.0934 - High July 9

*PRICE: NZ$1.0899 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0886 - High July 6 now support

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0853 - Low July 6

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0830 - Hourly support June 28

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0775 - Low June 27

*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies and the Bollinger top (NZ$1.0988) impacted with a

lack of follow through on last week's 5mth highs. Bulls take comfort in the

bounce to start the new week but continue to look for a close above NZ$1.1006 to

reconfirm a bullish bias and initially targeting 2018 highs. Initial support is

noted at NZ$1.0886 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room and

below NZ$1.0830 to confirm a break below the 200-DMA (NZ$1.0862), easing bullish

pressure and returning focus to NZ$1.0775-1.0819 where 21 & 55-DMAs are located.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y81.59-82.24 Support Region Key

*RES 4: Y84.70 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Y84.53 - High June 7 

*RES 2: Y84.19 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: Y83.63 - High June 14

*PRICE: Y82.57 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.45 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: Y82.24 - High July 6 now support

*SUP 3: Y81.88 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: Y81.59 - Low July 6

*COMMENTARY: Despite bearish pressure on 2018 lows the past couple of weeks

bears failed to make fresh 2018 lows. The bounce last week saw bulls gain

breathing room with Monday's close above 55 & 100-DMAs shifting initial focus to

Y83.63-85.00 where the 200-DMA (Y84.70) is noted. Layers of support are

following the pair higher. Bears now need a close below the Y82.24 to ease

bullish pressure and below Y81.59 to shift focus back to Y80.24-63.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.5815 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: A$1.5967 - High May 9

*RES 3: A$1.5902 - Bollinger band top

*RES 2: A$1.5887 - High July 3

*RES 1: A$1.5815 - High July 9

*PRICE: A$1.5771 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5681 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: A$1.5650 - Low June 22 

*SUP 3: A$1.5615 - Low June 20 

*SUP 4: A$1.5585 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Daily momentum divergence and O/B daily studies impacted last week

with the pair remaining capped at the A$1.5887-1.5967 region with a close above

needed to confirm focus on A$1.6056-1.6140 where 2018 & monthly highs are noted.

Correcting O/B studies have recently weighed. Bulls take comfort in the bounce

from ahead of the 55-DMA but still need a close above $1.5815 to confirm an

easing of bearish pressure and to return focus to A$1.5887-1.5967. Bears look

for a close below the 55-DMA to focus on A$1.5541-85 where the 200-DMA is

located.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 55-DMA Supporting For Now

*RES 4: 95.524 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 95.141 - High July 2 

*RES 2: 94.728 - Hourly support July 3 now resistance 

*RES 1: 94.600 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 94.128 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 94.018 - Low July 10

*SUP 2: 93.741 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 93.193 - Low June 14

*SUP 4: 92.837 - High May 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs lacked follow through last week with

hesitation around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls continue to look for a close

above the 100-WMA (95.524) to target 96.617. Bears take comfort in the 21-DMA

capping which retains pressure on the 55-DMA and remain focused on a break of

93.193 needed to pressure 100 (92.035) & 200 DMAs. Bulls now need a close above

94.728 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and gain breathing room, returning

pressure to 95.140-531.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below $1.1670

*RES 4: $1.1854 High May 16

*RES 3: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 2: $1.1790 High July 9

*RES 1: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*PRICE: $1.1744 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1670 Hourly support July 5 

*SUP 2: $1.1627 Low July 4 

*SUP 3: $1.1589 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of the 55-DMA to start the

new week was less than ideal for bulls. The $1.1889-1.1924 region where the

55-WMA ($1.1924) is noted is key. Bulls now need a close above the 55-WMA to

shift initial focus to $1.1984-1.2053 where 100 ($1.2008) & 200 ($1.1984) DMAs

are found. Bears now look for a close below $1.1670 to ease renewed bullish

pressure and below $1.1589 to pressure 2018 lows.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y110.78

*RES 4: Y112.87 Low Jan 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y112.04 Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 1: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21

*PRICE: Y110.91 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.78 High July 6 now support 

*SUP 2: Y110.11 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y109.95 Low June 28 

*SUP 4: Y109.35 Low June 25

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to the Y111.39-112.04 region where May highs

are noted remaining key. Bulls look for a close above Y112.04 to end bearish

hopes, shifting immediate focus to Y113.24-44 where the 200-WMA (Y113.23) is

noted and overall focus to Y114.72 Nov highs. Bears now need a close below

Y110.78 to gain breathing room and below Y109.95 to confirm a break of the bull

channel base (Y110.43) off 2018 lows and return pressure to Y109.01. A close

below Y109.01 initially targets Y107.85-108.46.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y129.83

*RES 4: Y131.93 200-DMA

*RES 3: Y131.47 55-WMA

*RES 2: Y131.37 High May 14

*RES 1: Y130.55 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y130.28 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.08 Low July 10 

*SUP 2: Y129.83 Hourly support July 9 

*SUP 3: Y129.32 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y129.09 Hourly support July 5

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to layers of resistance has taken its toll with

the pair breaking above the 100-DMA (Y130.24) and Y130.34 resistance. The lack

of topside follow through is less than ideal as is the failure to close above

Y130.34. In saying that, bullish focus has now shifted to Y131.37-94 where the

55-WMA and 200-DMA are located. Daily studies at O/B levels are the key concern

for bulls. Bears now look for a close below Y129.83 to gain breathing room and

below the 55-DMA to shift immediate pressure back to Y128.40.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1265.8-1272.7 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: $1284.1 - High June 19 

*RES 3: $1272.7 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: $1265.8 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1260.2 - High July 10

*PRICE: $1255.2 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1252.7 - Hourly support July 10 

*SUP 2: $1246.8 - Low July 10 

*SUP 3: $1244.1 - Hourly support July 3 

*SUP 4: $1237.3 - 2018 Low July 3

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows lacked follow through last week with an

aggressive bounce from below the LT rising TL off 2015 lows and ahead of the key

200-WMA ($1234.0). Bears look for a close below the 200-WMA to confirm breaks of

key supports and initially target $1204.5. Bulls now need a close above the

21-DMA to return initial focus to $1272.7 where the 100-WMA is noted and above

the 100-WMA to target $1284.0-1292.1.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Below $72.14 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: $76.32 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $75.96 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $75.27 - 2018 High July 3 

*RES 1: $74.90 - High July 4

*PRICE: $74.21 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $73.65 - Low July 10 

*SUP 2: $72.99 - Low July 9 

*SUP 3: $72.14 - Low July 6 

*SUP 4: $71.40 - Hourly resistance June 27 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs last week remained capped ahead of daily

and weekly bull channel tops. Very O/B daily studies remain key concerns for

bulls and limit follow through. Below $72.14 remains needed to hint at a move

back to $69.44-70.02 with a close below $71.40 to add weight to their case.

While $72.14 supports bulls retain an advantage with focus remaining on bull

channel tops $75.96-76.32.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]