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Free AccessMNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis
16 July 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Focused On 2018 Low
*RES 4: $0.7488 - 55-DMA
*RES 3: $0.7484 - High July 10
*RES 2: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance
*RES 1: $0.7424 - High July 13
*PRICE: $0.7421 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7357 - Low July 12
*SUP 2: $0.7328 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2
*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017
*COMMENTARY: Bears continue to look for a close below $0.7308 to shift focus to
tests of $0.7142 2017 lows. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower.
Layers of resistance have followed the pair lower and add to bearish confidence.
Bulls now need a close above $0.7424 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA
to hint at a move back to $0.7594-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7594) & 200 ($0.7684)
DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming.
KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.6804
*RES 4: $0.6921 - High June 25
*RES 3: $0.6882 - Alternating daily support/resistance
*RES 2: $0.6816 - 21-DMA
*RES 1: $0.6804 - Low July 10 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.6761 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $0.6723 - Low July 13
*SUP 2: $0.6686 - 2018 Low July 3
*SUP 3: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016
*SUP 4: $0.6569 - Weekly Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: The failure at the 21-DMA resulted in a sharp sell-off Wednesday
and focus back on the $0.6674 2018 low. Bears look for a close at fresh 2018
lows to shift focus to the weekly bear channel base coming in around $0.6569
today. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a
close above $0.6804 to gain breathing room and above $0.6882 to shift initial
focus to $0.6911-21 where the 55-DMA is situated.
AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1006
*RES 4: NZ$1.1073 - 2018 High Jan 29
*RES 3: NZ$1.1015 - Bollinger band top
*RES 2: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance
*RES 1: NZ$1.0992 - High July 3
*PRICE: NZ$1.0969 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0941 - High July 12 now support
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0893 - Low July 12
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0862 - 200-DMA
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0853 - Low July 6
*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies and the Bollinger top (NZ$1.1015) impacted with a
lack of follow through on recent week's 5mth highs. Bulls take comfort in
bounces from around the 200-DMA but continue to look for a close above NZ$1.1006
to reconfirm a bullish bias and initially targeting 2018 highs. Initial support
is noted at NZ$1.0941 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room.
the 55-DMA (NZ$1.0827) support is key this week. Bears now need a close below to
shift initial focus to NZ$1.0775-1.0793.
AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bulls Focused On 200-DMA
*RES 4: Y84.63 - 200-DMA
*RES 3: Y84.53 - High June 7
*RES 2: Y84.19 - 100-WMA
*RES 1: Y83.63 - High June 14
*PRICE: Y83.26 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y82.72 - High July 10 now support
*SUP 2: Y82.07 - Low July 11
*SUP 3: Y81.90 - 21-DMA
*SUP 4: Y81.59 - Low July 6
*COMMENTARY: The closes above Y83.16 add to bullish confidence and sees focus on
Y84.53-89 where the 200-DMA is located. Daily studies approaching O/B levels are
a key concern for bulls. Initial support is now noted at the July 10 high with
bears needing a close below to gain breathing room. The Y81.59 support remains
key this week. Bears need a close below this level to confirm traction below the
21-DMA (Y81.90) and shift focus back to Y80.24-63.
EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.5887-1.5967 Resistance Region Remains Key
*RES 4: A$1.5887 - High July 3
*RES 3: A$1.5857 - Bollinger band top
*RES 2: A$1.5802 - Hourly support July 12 now resistance
*RES 1: A$1.5783 - 100-DMA
*PRICE: A$1.5745 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.5694 - Low June 27
*SUP 2: A$1.5673 - 55-DMA
*SUP 3: A$1.5650 - Low June 22
*SUP 4: A$1.5615 - Low June 20
*COMMENTARY: The A$1.5887-1.5967 resistance region remains key this week. Bulls
need a close above A$1.5887 to reconfirm the bullish bias with a close above
A$1.5967 then needed to confirm focus on A$1.6056-1.6140 where 2018 & monthly
highs are noted. Correcting O/B studies have recently weighed. Bears continue to
look for a close below the 55-DMA to initially focus on A$1.5541-95 where the
200-DMA is located.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 93.713 Support Key
*RES 4: 96.617 - High June 28 2017
*RES 3: 95.530 - 100-WMA
*RES 2: 95.241 - High July 13
*RES 1: 95.067 - Hourly support July 13 now resistance
*PRICE: 94.752 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 94.642 - Low July
*SUP 2: 94.486 - High July 6 now support
*SUP 3: 94.018 - Low July 10
*SUP 4: 93.923 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs lacked follow through in past weeks with
hesitation around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls take comfort in the bounce from
the 55-DMA last week but continue to look for a close above the 100-WMA (95.531)
to target 96.617. Bears now look for a close below 94.486 to gain breathing room
and below 93.713 to confirm initial focus on 92.837-93.193 and hint at a move
back to 100 (92.182) & 200 (92.266) DMAs.
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Focused On $1.1506-89
*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11
*RES 3: $1.1790 High July 9
*RES 2: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9
*RES 1: $1.1695 High July 12
*PRICE: $1.1691 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1649 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*SUP 2: $1.1610 Low July 13
*SUP 3: $1.1589 Low July 2
*SUP 4: $1.1544 Bollinger band base
*COMMENTARY: Follow through above the 55-DMA ($1.1733) was lacking last week and
resulted in a dip back towards the $1.1589 support. Bears now need a close below
this level to initially pressure 2018 lows. Below $1.1311 remains needed to
confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1451) & 200 ($1.1381) WMAs and target $1.0819. Bulls
now need a close above $1.1790 to confirm traction above the 55-DMA and above
the 55-WMA ($1.1927) to shift initial focus to $1.1983-1.2053 where 100
($1.1988) & 200 ($1.1983) DMAs are found.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y111.86 Support Key Today
*RES 4: Y113.74 Monthly High Dec 12
*RES 3: Y113.38 2018 High Jan 8
*RES 2: Y113.24 200-WMA
*RES 1: Y112.87 Low Jan 8 now resistance
*PRICE: Y112.22 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y112.17 High July 11 now support
*SUP 2: Y111.86 Hourly support July 11
*SUP 3: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 now support
*SUP 4: Y110.75 Low July 11
*COMMENTARY: Support around the 21 & 200-DMAs provided the base for continued
fresh 7mth highs with initial bullish focus on the Y113.24-74 region where the
200-WMA, 2018 & Dec highs are located. O/B daily studies and the Bollinger top
(Y112.40) are the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through.
Bears now need a close below Y111.86 to ease bullish pressure and below Y111.35
to shift focus back to Y109.95-110.77 where key DMAs and the bull channel base
off 2018 lows are noted.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA
*RES 4: Y132.59 Low Apr 24
*RES 3: Y131.92 200-DMA
*RES 2: Y131.52 Hourly resistance July 13
*RES 1: Y131.49 55-WMA
*PRICE: Y131.09 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y130.64 Low July 12
*SUP 2: Y130.35 Hourly support July 11
*SUP 3: Y129.83 Hourly support July 9
*SUP 4: Y129.28 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through and aggressive reversal following the
pop above the 55-WMA is less than ideal for bulls when combined with very O/B
daily studies looking to correct. Bears now look for a close below Y130.64 to
gain breathing room and below Y129.83 to hint at a move back to Y128.40 with
below the 55-DMA (Y129.28) to confirm. Overall bulls look for a close above the
200-DMA to target Y133.48-135.62 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-WMA
*RES 4: $1272.6 - 100-WMA
*RES 3: $1260.2 - High July 10
*RES 2: $1257.8 - 21-DMA
*RES 1: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance
*PRICE: $1241.0 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $1236.6 - 2018 Low July 3
*SUP 2: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12
*SUP 3: $1233.9 - 200-WMA
*SUP 4: $1227.1 - High July 7 2017 now support
*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of the 21-DMA left the pair looking
offered and bears have not been disappointed with pressure returning to the LT
rising TL off 2015 lows ($1242.5) and the 200-WMA. Bears look for a close below
the 200-WMA to confirm breaks of key supports and initially target $1204.5.
Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a close
above $1260.2 to ease bearish pressure and to return initial focus to $1272.6
where the 100-WMA is noted and above the 100-WMA to initially target
$1284.0-1292.1.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U18) $67.76 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: $72.98 - Monthly High July 10
*RES 3: $72.08 - Low July 10 now resistance
*RES 2: $71.13 - Low July 9 now resistance
*RES 1: $70.60 - High July 13
*PRICE: $69.95 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $68.76 - Low July 13
*SUP 2: $67.76 - High June 25 now support
*SUP 3: $66.77 - Low June 25
*SUP 4: $65.79 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $73.00 has taken its toll on U18 with the sharp
sell-off dipping below the 55-DMA ($68.42). Bears now look for a close below
$67.76 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift initial focus to $65.79-66.77
where the 100-DMA is noted. Layers of resistance building and correcting O/B
studies have recently weighed. Bulls now need a close above $71.13 to shift
focus back to $72.08-98.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.