MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

16 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Focused On 2018 Low

*RES 4: $0.7488 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 2: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7424 - High July 13

*PRICE: $0.7421 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7357 - Low July 12 

*SUP 2: $0.7328 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bears continue to look for a close below $0.7308 to shift focus to

tests of $0.7142 2017 lows. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower.

Layers of resistance have followed the pair lower and add to bearish confidence.

Bulls now need a close above $0.7424 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA

to hint at a move back to $0.7594-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7594) & 200 ($0.7684)

DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming.

     KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.6804

*RES 4: $0.6921 - High June 25 

*RES 3: $0.6882 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 2: $0.6816 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $0.6804 - Low July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.6761 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6723 - Low July 13

*SUP 2: $0.6686 - 2018 Low July 3

*SUP 3: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016

*SUP 4: $0.6569 - Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The failure at the 21-DMA resulted in a sharp sell-off Wednesday

and focus back on the $0.6674 2018 low. Bears look for a close at fresh 2018

lows to shift focus to the weekly bear channel base coming in around $0.6569

today. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a

close above $0.6804 to gain breathing room and above $0.6882 to shift initial

focus to $0.6911-21 where the 55-DMA is situated.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1006

*RES 4: NZ$1.1073 - 2018 High Jan 29

*RES 3: NZ$1.1015 - Bollinger band top

*RES 2: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*RES 1: NZ$1.0992 - High July 3

*PRICE: NZ$1.0969 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0941 - High July 12 now support

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0893 - Low July 12

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0862 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0853 - Low July 6

*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies and the Bollinger top (NZ$1.1015) impacted with a

lack of follow through on recent week's 5mth highs. Bulls take comfort in

bounces from around the 200-DMA but continue to look for a close above NZ$1.1006

to reconfirm a bullish bias and initially targeting 2018 highs. Initial support

is noted at NZ$1.0941 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room.

the 55-DMA (NZ$1.0827) support is key this week. Bears now need a close below to

shift initial focus to NZ$1.0775-1.0793.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bulls Focused On 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y84.63 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Y84.53 - High June 7 

*RES 2: Y84.19 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: Y83.63 - High June 14

*PRICE: Y83.26 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.72 - High July 10 now support

*SUP 2: Y82.07 - Low July 11

*SUP 3: Y81.90 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: Y81.59 - Low July 6

*COMMENTARY: The closes above Y83.16 add to bullish confidence and sees focus on

Y84.53-89 where the 200-DMA is located. Daily studies approaching O/B levels are

a key concern for bulls. Initial support is now noted at the July 10 high with

bears needing a close below to gain breathing room. The Y81.59 support remains

key this week. Bears need a close below this level to confirm traction below the

21-DMA (Y81.90) and shift focus back to Y80.24-63.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.5887-1.5967 Resistance Region Remains Key

*RES 4: A$1.5887 - High July 3

*RES 3: A$1.5857 - Bollinger band top

*RES 2: A$1.5802 - Hourly support July 12 now resistance

*RES 1: A$1.5783 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: A$1.5745 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5694 - Low June 27 

*SUP 2: A$1.5673 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.5650 - Low June 22 

*SUP 4: A$1.5615 - Low June 20

*COMMENTARY: The A$1.5887-1.5967 resistance region remains key this week. Bulls

need a close above A$1.5887 to reconfirm the bullish bias with a close above

A$1.5967 then needed to confirm focus on A$1.6056-1.6140 where 2018 & monthly

highs are noted. Correcting O/B studies have recently weighed. Bears continue to

look for a close below the 55-DMA to initially focus on A$1.5541-95 where the

200-DMA is located.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 93.713 Support Key

*RES 4: 96.617 - High June 28 2017 

*RES 3: 95.530 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: 95.241 - High July 13 

*RES 1: 95.067 - Hourly support July 13 now resistance

*PRICE: 94.752 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 94.642 - Low July

*SUP 2: 94.486 - High July 6 now support

*SUP 3: 94.018 - Low July 10

*SUP 4: 93.923 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs lacked follow through in past weeks with

hesitation around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls take comfort in the bounce from

the 55-DMA last week but continue to look for a close above the 100-WMA (95.531)

to target 96.617. Bears now look for a close below 94.486 to gain breathing room

and below 93.713 to confirm initial focus on 92.837-93.193 and hint at a move

back to 100 (92.182) & 200 (92.266) DMAs.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Focused On $1.1506-89

*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 3: $1.1790 High July 9

*RES 2: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*RES 1: $1.1695 High July 12

*PRICE: $1.1691 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1649 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $1.1610 Low July 13 

*SUP 3: $1.1589 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $1.1544 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Follow through above the 55-DMA ($1.1733) was lacking last week and

resulted in a dip back towards the $1.1589 support. Bears now need a close below

this level to initially pressure 2018 lows. Below $1.1311 remains needed to

confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1451) & 200 ($1.1381) WMAs and target $1.0819. Bulls

now need a close above $1.1790 to confirm traction above the 55-DMA and above

the 55-WMA ($1.1927) to shift initial focus to $1.1983-1.2053 where 100

($1.1988) & 200 ($1.1983) DMAs are found.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y111.86 Support Key Today

*RES 4: Y113.74 Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: Y113.38 2018 High Jan 8 

*RES 2: Y113.24 200-WMA 

*RES 1: Y112.87 Low Jan 8 now resistance

*PRICE: Y112.22 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.17 High July 11 now support 

*SUP 2: Y111.86 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 3: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 now support 

*SUP 4: Y110.75 Low July 11

*COMMENTARY: Support around the 21 & 200-DMAs provided the base for continued

fresh 7mth highs with initial bullish focus on the Y113.24-74 region where the

200-WMA, 2018 & Dec highs are located. O/B daily studies and the Bollinger top

(Y112.40) are the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through.

Bears now need a close below Y111.86 to ease bullish pressure and below Y111.35

to shift focus back to Y109.95-110.77 where key DMAs and the bull channel base

off 2018 lows are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y132.59 Low Apr 24

*RES 3: Y131.92 200-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.52 Hourly resistance July 13

*RES 1: Y131.49 55-WMA

*PRICE: Y131.09 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.64 Low July 12 

*SUP 2: Y130.35 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 3: Y129.83 Hourly support July 9 

*SUP 4: Y129.28 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through and aggressive reversal following the

pop above the 55-WMA is less than ideal for bulls when combined with very O/B

daily studies looking to correct. Bears now look for a close below Y130.64 to

gain breathing room and below Y129.83 to hint at a move back to Y128.40 with

below the 55-DMA (Y129.28) to confirm. Overall bulls look for a close above the

200-DMA to target Y133.48-135.62 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1272.6 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: $1260.2 - High July 10 

*RES 2: $1257.8 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $1241.0 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1236.6 - 2018 Low July 3 

*SUP 2: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12 

*SUP 3: $1233.9 - 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1227.1 - High July 7 2017 now support

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of the 21-DMA left the pair looking

offered and bears have not been disappointed with pressure returning to the LT

rising TL off 2015 lows ($1242.5) and the 200-WMA. Bears look for a close below

the 200-WMA to confirm breaks of key supports and initially target $1204.5.

Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a close

above $1260.2 to ease bearish pressure and to return initial focus to $1272.6

where the 100-WMA is noted and above the 100-WMA to initially target

$1284.0-1292.1.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U18) $67.76 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $72.98 - Monthly High July 10 

*RES 3: $72.08 - Low July 10 now resistance 

*RES 2: $71.13 - Low July 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: $70.60 - High July 13

*PRICE: $69.95 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $68.76 - Low July 13 

*SUP 2: $67.76 - High June 25 now support 

*SUP 3: $66.77 - Low June 25 

*SUP 4: $65.79 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $73.00 has taken its toll on U18 with the sharp

sell-off dipping below the 55-DMA ($68.42). Bears now look for a close below

$67.76 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift initial focus to $65.79-66.77

where the 100-DMA is noted. Layers of resistance building and correcting O/B

studies have recently weighed. Bulls now need a close above $71.13 to shift

focus back to $72.08-98.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]