MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis - Now With NYMEX WTI

31 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.8040 & 0.8162 Levels Now Key

*RES 4: $0.8295 - 2015 High Jan 15

*RES 3: $0.8162 - Monthly high May 14 2015

*RES 2: $0.8137 - Bollinger band top

*RES 1: $0.8135 - 2018 High Jan 26

*PRICE: $0.8083 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.8041 - Hourly support Jan 26 

*SUP 2: $0.8002 - Low Jan 26 

*SUP 3: $0.7990 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 4: $0.7950 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.8135-62 remains a concern given daily

studies looking to correct from O/B and lower daily highs. Bulls look for a

close above $0.8162 to shift focus to $0.8295-0.8542 where the weekly bull

channel top ($0.8456) is noted. Layers of support remain with bears needing a

close below $0.8040 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below $0.7916 to

target $0.7229-0.7802 where key DMAs are clustered.

KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7458 - Low July 28 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7435 - 2018 High Jan 24 

*RES 2: $0.7391 - High Jan 25 

*RES 1: $0.7354 - High Jan 30

*PRICE: $0.7333 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7300 - Alternating support/resistance

*SUP 2: $0.7277 - Low Jan 30

*SUP 3: $0.7266 - Low Jan 22

*SUP 4: $0.7253 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation defined the latter part of the week with bulls

needing a close above $0.7435 to reconfirm the bullish bias and target tests of

$0.7558 2017 highs. Correcting O/B daily studies remain the key concern for

bulls with lower daily highs also less than ideal. Bears now look for a close

below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below $0.7217 to shift focus to

$0.7042-0.7131 where key DMAs are clustered.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.0932-1.1003 Support Region Key

*RES 4: NZ$1.1290 - 2017 High Oct 24

*RES 3: NZ$1.1238 - High Oct 26

*RES 2: NZ$1.1139 - High Nov 14

*RES 1: NZ$1.1073 - 2018 High Jan 30

*PRICE: NZ$1.1017 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.1003 - 100-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0986 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0932 - Low Jan 25

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0846 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 2mth highs lacked follow through with bulls focused on

a break of NZ$1.1139 to add support to the case for a test of 2017 highs. Layers

of support remain with bears needing a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish

pressure and below NZ$1.0932 to shift focus back to NZ$1.0824-46 where the

200-DMA is situated. Overall bears need a close below the 100-WMA (NZ$1.0734) to

target tests of the weekly TL off 2014 lows coming in around NZ$1.0442.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: 100-DMA Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y90.30 - 2017 High Sept 21 

*RES 3: Y89.67 - High Sept 25 

*RES 2: Y89.09 - High Oct 23 

*RES 1: Y88.46 - High Jan 26

*PRICE: Y87.91 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y87.45 - Low Jan 30

*SUP 2: Y87.35 - 100-DMA, 21-WMA

*SUP 3: Y86.80 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: Y86.44 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair has remained capped ahead of Y89.09 with the correction

leaving the pair looking a little heavy. The 100-DMA remains key support. Bears

look for a close below the 100-DMA to initially focus on Y85.92-86.80 where 55 &

200-DMAs are situated. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y89.09 to

reconfirm a bullish bias and target 2017 highs (Y90.30). Daily studies are at

neural levels and giving few clues.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Flirting With 100-DMA, A$1.5256 & A$1.5526 Levels Key

*RES 4: A$1.5586 - Low Dec 7 Now Resistance

*RES 3: A$1.5526 - High Dec 20

*RES 2: A$1.5495 - High Jan 25

*RES 1: A$1.5378 - High Jan 30

*PRICE: A$1.5346 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5276 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: A$1.5256 - Low Jan 29 

*SUP 3: A$1.5189 - Hourly resistance Jan 11 now support 

*SUP 4: A$1.5148 - 2018 Low Jan 11

*COMMENTARY: Time spent above the 55-DMA (A$1.5439) was brief with the pair

flirting with the 100-DMA. Bears continue to look for a close below A$1.5256 to

confirm a break of the 100-DMA and target A$1.5066-1.5152 where the 200-DMA is

situated. Bulls now look for a close above A$1.5377 to ease pressure on support

layers. Overall a close above A$1.5526 is needed to target A$1.5774 2017 highs.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 90.113

*RES 4: 90.704 - High Jan 22 

*RES 3: 90.294 - Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 2: 90.113 - Hourly resistance Jan 24 

*RES 1: 89.637 - High Jan 30

*PRICE: 89.163 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 88.723 - Low Jan 26

*SUP 2: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 3: 88.125 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*SUP 4: 87.576 - Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S daily studies remain the key concern for bears who

are currently focused on 88.125 Dec 2014 monthly lows. Layers of resistance

remain and weigh. Bulls still need a close above 90.113 to gain breathing room

and above 91.011 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (90.835) and shift focus to

92.426-915 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bears need a close below 88.438 to add

weight to their case.

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2322 Support Confirms Significance

*RES 4: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014

*RES 3: $1.2536 2018 High Jan 25

*RES 2: $1.2494 High Jan 26

*RES 1: $1.2453 High Jan 30

*PRICE: $1.2402 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2322 High Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2270 Hourly support Jan 24

*SUP 3: $1.2213 Low Jan 22 

*SUP 4: $1.2188 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The $1.2322 support has confirmed significance with bulls taking

comfort in the bounce Tuesday. In saying that, topside follow through has again

been lacking with bulls now needing a close above $1.2453 to reconfirm initial

focus on retests of 2018 highs and overall focus on tests of the weekly bear

channel top ($1.2661). Bears look for a close below $1.2322 to shift initial

focus back to $1.2092-1.2213 where the 21-DMA is noted.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y108.12

*RES 4: Y110.55 Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 3: Y110.18 Low Jan 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y109.76 High Jan 26 

*RES 1: Y109.20 Highs Jan 29 & 30

*PRICE: Y108.73 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.40 Low Jan 30 

*SUP 2: Y108.27 Low Jan 26 

*SUP 3: Y108.12 Low Sept 11 

*SUP 4: Y107.58 Weekly Triangle base

*COMMENTARY: Immediate bearish focus remains on Y107.31-58 where 2017 lows and

the weekly triangle base are located. O/S daily studies and Bollinger base

(Y108.22) remain concerns and currently limit follow through. Support is

starting to emerge on dips, but bulls still need a close above Y110.18 to ease

bearish pressure and target a correction back to Y110.97-111.98 where key DMAs

are noted. Bears need a close below Y108.12 to add weight to their case.

EURO-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Capping, 55-DMA Supporting

*RES 4: Y136.62 2018 High Jan 5

*RES 3: Y136.32 High Jan 8

*RES 2: Y135.46 Hourly resistance Jan 26

*RES 1: Y135.25 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y134.88 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.64 Hourly support Jan 30 

*SUP 2: Y134.04 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y133.96 Daily bull channel base (off Aug 18 low) 

*SUP 4: Y133.43 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures ahead of Y136.32-62 took their toll with a break

of Y134.81 increasing the risk of a correction and immediate pressure on

Y133.43-134.03 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base are situated. The

21-DMA is now capping with bulls needing a close above to return immediate focus

to 2018 highs. Bears continue to look for a close below the 100-DMA to target

Y130.26-132.03 where the 200-DMA (Y130.26) is noted.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Below 21-DMA Targets $1302.5-1305.6

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1352.3 - High Jan 29 

*RES 1: $1348.9 - High Jan 30

*PRICE: $1339.5 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1331.2 - Low Jan 23, 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1323.7 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 3: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11 

*SUP 4: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on last week's 2018 high remains

a concern for bulls and leaves gold looking a little heavy. Daily studies

correcting are weighing. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to shift initial

focus to $1302.5-1305.6. Initial resistance is noted at $1348.9 but bulls need a

close above $1352.3 to gain breathing room and above $1374.9 to confirm focus on

$ $1391.8-1433.3.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (H18) Below $62.78 To Target $58.82-60.75 

*RES 4: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 3: $65.68 - Hourly resistance Jan 29 

*RES 2: $65.19 - Hourly resistance Jan 30 

*RES 1: $64.67 - Hourly support Jan 30 now resistance

*PRICE: $64.56 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $64.10 - Low Jan 30 

*SUP 2: $63.70 - Low Jan 23 

*SUP 3: $63.42 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $62.78 - Low Jan 19

*COMMENTARY: H18 remains heavy with correcting O/B daily studies seen weighing.

The close below $64.87 eases bullish pressure with bears now looking for a close

below $62.78 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and initially focus on

$58.82-60.75 where the 55-DMA ($59.79) is found. Resistance layers are building

and weighing also with bulls now needing a close above $65.68 to reconfirm focus

on $69.54 (Dec 1 2014 high).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]