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MNI Bank Indonesia-Nov 2024: On Hold, Waits For IDR Stability

Bank Indonesia meets on November 20 and it is a close call but it is likely to stay on hold and retain the easing bias.
Asia Bank - PreviewBank of Indonesia - PreviewAPACAnalysisEM Central Bank ReportsEM Central Bank PreviewIndonesiaStory

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Bank Indonesia meets on November 20 and it is a close call if it will follow the September 25bp rate cut with another after pausing in October but market volatility and uncertainty following the US election result is likely to mean they stay on hold retaining an easing bias. 
  • The October statement said that BI’s short-term focus is rupiah stability in response to increased global financial market uncertainty. That has increased substantially since the US elected Trump as the next president.
  • BI also said in October that further easing depends on the inflation outlook, growth and the exchange rate. While the first two are in line with another rate cut, the rupiah is not with USDIDR above 15800.
  • The market is not sure if the Fed will cut again on December 18, but even it doesn’t the rate differential will allow BI to ease on the same day if the rupiah has stabilised.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: BI Preview - November 2024.pdf

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Bank Indonesia meets on November 20 and it is a close call if it will follow the September 25bp rate cut with another after pausing in October but market volatility and uncertainty following the US election result is likely to mean they stay on hold retaining an easing bias. 
  • The October statement said that BI’s short-term focus is rupiah stability in response to increased global financial market uncertainty. That has increased substantially since the US elected Trump as the next president.
  • BI also said in October that further easing depends on the inflation outlook, growth and the exchange rate. While the first two are in line with another rate cut, the rupiah is not with USDIDR above 15800.
  • The market is not sure if the Fed will cut again on December 18, but even it doesn’t the rate differential will allow BI to ease on the same day if the rupiah has stabilised.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: BI Preview - November 2024.pdf