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MNI Bank Indonesia Preview - February 2023: BI To Pause, May Be Done

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Bank Indonesia is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.75% at its February 16 meeting. This would be the first pause since tightening began in August and BI's tone indicates that it sees the terminal rate at 5.75%. In its January statement it said that the 225bp of cumulative tightening would be “sufficient to ensure core inflation remains within the 3.0%±1% target corridor” and that headline inflation would return to it in H2 2023.
  • January inflation data eased, consistent with BI expectations, and data on cost and price pressures in the PMI also showed a moderation. BI noted that the recent appreciation in the currency should also help return inflation to target through lower import prices.
  • Rates are likely on hold now with the next move a cut but if expectations for Fed rates are revised up, then the risk is that Bank Indonesia will need to resume tightening to stabilise the IDR.

For the full piece, see here.

BI Preview - February 2023.pdf

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