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MNI Bank Indonesia Preview – February 2024: No Reason To Shift Rates

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Bank Indonesia (BI) is unanimously expected to leave rates at 6.0% at its meeting on February 21. The accompanying meeting statement is likely to be scrutinised for any dovish changes or downward revisions to forecasts. Currently with inflation around the mid-point of the band, growth robust and the IDR still at weak levels, there is no reason to change rates.
  • BI Governor Warjiyo said that the window to begin easing is H2 2024, but a material and sustainable appreciation in the rupiah and the start of Fed rate cuts are probably going to be needed first, unless growth slows sharply and inflation with it.
  • February has seen some rupiah strengthening but FX stability is likely to remain BI's focus. Recent depreciation has put pressure on import prices, which the central bank is monitoring closely.

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BI Preview - February 2024.pdf

Asia Bank - PreviewHomepageBank of Indonesia - PreviewEM Central Bank ReportsEM Central Bank PreviewEmerging Market News

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